The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has shifted its strategic focus away from Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia, according to four people briefed on a closed-door meeting held Wednesday. NRSC Chair Senator Tim Scott informed Senate Republicans that the committee’s spending will prioritize defending seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, while attempting to flip Democratic-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.
The new target list excludes North Carolina GOP nominee Michael Whatley, who is challenging Democrat Roy Cooper, and Georgia GOP nominee Mike Collins, who is seeking to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff. This reallocation of resources marks a significant departure from previous cycles, as President Donald Trump carried Georgia in both 2016 and 2024, and won North Carolina in the last three presidential elections.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats in North Carolina view the NRSC’s decision as an acknowledgment of their competitive position in a state they have not lost in the Senate since 2008. Democratic nominee Roy Cooper previously stated, "Democrats are often ahead until they are not," a sentiment echoed by his camp to highlight the volatility of the race. Cooper also noted last week that "We know a lot of undecided voters lean Republican," suggesting that despite the NRSC's pullback, the contest remains tight.
In Georgia, Democrats see the NRSC’s deprioritization as a sign of vulnerability for incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff. The Democratic strategy appears to rely on maintaining pressure on Ossoff’s record while capitalizing on the NRSC’s focus on other battlegrounds. Democratic officials have not issued a specific statement on the NRSC’s internal meeting, but the party’s broader posture suggests confidence that their candidates can hold these seats without massive external GOP spending.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican officials in North Carolina rejected the notion that the state is being abandoned. DJ Griffin, a spokesperson for Michael Whatley, said in a statement, "We’re confident we will have the resources to get our message out to North Carolina voters and win." The statement referenced Cooper’s own admissions about undecided voters leaning Republican to argue that the race is still winnable for the GOP.
In Georgia, State Party Chair Josh McKoon dismissed reports of deprioritization, stating in a text message, "Every cycle, someone in Washington leaks that they’re thinking about moving money. What matters is who shows up — and what the actual numbers say." Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is scheduled to headline a fundraiser for Mike Collins in Atlanta, alongside Governor Brian Kemp, signaling continued top-level GOP engagement in the state.
Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), who was present at the briefing, argued that the party must make "hard choices" regarding resource allocation. "At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive," Cornyn said. Other GOP groups, including Trump’s MAGA Inc., may still allocate funds to the excluded states.
What the Numbers Show
According to polling shared by Senator Scott during the briefing, Republican Senator Jon Husted of Ohio is trailing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. In New Hampshire, polling indicates that Republican John Sununu is essentially tied with Democratic Representative Chris Pappas, a seat the NRSC is actively targeting for a flip.
In Georgia, a campaign memo obtained by POLITICO estimates that one in 10 voters who backed Trump in 2024 and plan to vote for Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson are still undecided in the Senate race. Public polling shows the Georgia governor’s race has tighter margins than the Senate race, with Jackson leading Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms in recent surveys. A GOP pollster, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted the strategy is to "spend as little for Senate as possible while not derailing Rick Jackson’s... very strong bid for Governor."
The Bottom Line
The NRSC’s decision reflects a calculated risk: reallocating finite resources to defend vulnerable red seats and target winnable blue seats, while leaving Georgia and North Carolina to other GOP-aligned groups. This shift suggests that senior Republicans are increasingly resigned to the possibility of losing these traditionally red states in the Senate. The effectiveness of this strategy will depend on whether MAGA Inc. and other super PACs fill the funding gap in Georgia and North Carolina, and whether the NRSC’s targeted states in the Midwest and Northeast remain competitive as election day approaches.