Maine Senator Susan Collins faces her first reelection bid since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, with her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh serving as a central point of contention in the race against Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins, a moderate Republican who has held the seat for 30 years, is seeking a sixth term in a state that has not enacted strict abortion bans following the 2022 ruling, yet the issue remains a focal point for both campaigns.
The election marks a significant shift for voters like Erin Evans of Portland, who previously supported Collins based on Planned Parenthood endorsements and expectations of moderate judicial appointments. Evans described Collins' vote for Kavanaugh, who later joined the 6-3 majority to end federal abortion protections, as a betrayal. Jackson and Democratic strategists are betting that disillusioned moderate voters will defect, aiming to flip the seat in Maine, a state Democrats have prioritized in their effort to retake the Senate.
What the Right Is Saying
Senator Collins and her campaign maintain that she remains the only reliably pro-choice candidate in the race, pointing to her history of supporting judicial nominees who favor abortion rights, including Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan. Collins has consistently stated that she does not regret her vote to confirm Kavanaugh, noting that he assured her in a two-hour meeting that he viewed Roe v. Wade as settled law. Although Collins criticized the 2022 Supreme Court decision, she has not reversed her position on the confirmation vote that enabled the conservative majority.
Supporters of Collins, including some Democrats, argue that her moderate record and willingness to reach across the aisle outweigh her judicial votes. Mary Ann Lynch, a Democrat supporting Collins, stated that neither party has a monopoly on truth and emphasized the importance of having senators who will work with colleagues from the other side of the aisle. Collins' campaign argues that Maine's Democratic-controlled legislature and Governor Janet Mills have already enacted strong protections for abortion providers and access, rendering the issue less urgent in Maine than in other states where clinics have closed.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic candidates and allied advocacy groups argue that Collins' record on judicial nominations undermines her stated pro-choice positions. Jackson, a former state senator and logger, has secured endorsements from Planned Parenthood and Reproductive Freedom for All. His campaign highlights his legislative record in the Maine Senate, where he helped pass some of the nation's strongest protections for abortion access prior to the Supreme Court's decision. Jackson's spokesperson, Maggie Amjad, noted that the candidate now holds a 100% rating from Maine's Planned Parenthood, emphasizing his current stance despite past opposition to abortion rights and same-sex marriage.
Democratic-aligned groups have invested heavily in ads linking Collins to the overturning of Roe. Affordable Maine has spent nearly $10 million on advertisements stressing Collins' support for Trump-appointed judges who oppose abortion, while Win Senate has spent an additional $32 million focused on the senator. Planned Parenthood Votes has spent at least $500,000 on ads featuring voters who regret supporting Collins due to the Kavanaugh confirmation. Jackson has also formed a "Women for Troy" coalition with women from all 16 Maine counties to counter Collins' long-standing appeal to female voters.
What the Numbers Show
Polling data suggests that while the Supreme Court's decision is a factor, it is not the top concern for most likely Maine voters. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in September found that when asked to identify the single most important issue for their congressional vote, almost no likely Maine voters mentioned abortion. A CNN/SSRS survey from late August and early September indicated that while many voters remain unhappy with the overturning of Roe, broader concerns about the economy are overshadowing the abortion issue.
Collins has a historical advantage in Maine, having won elections even as the state voted for Democratic presidential nominees since 1988. In the 2020 Senate race, AP VoteCast data showed that 76% of Maine voters believed the Supreme Court should not overturn Roe v. Wade, including most of Collins' supporters. Only 35% of Collins' voters in that race said they wanted Roe overturned. Women constitute the majority of Maine's population and have a slightly higher voting rate than men, according to recent reports by democracy advocacy groups. Jackson faces additional challenges after replacing Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee following Platner's withdrawal amid personal controversies.
The Bottom Line
The race for Maine's Senate seat will serve as a test of how much the 2022 abortion ruling impacts voting patterns in states that have maintained access through legislative action. Collins' strategy relies on her decades-long brand of moderation and the argument that Maine's state laws already protect abortion rights, while Jackson aims to capitalize on the emotional and political fallout from the Kavanaugh confirmation. With abortion polling behind the economy in voter importance, the outcome may hinge on whether Jackson can unify the Democratic base and persuade independents who previously viewed Collins as a moderate ally, or if Collins can retain her broad coalition of voters who prioritize bipartisanship and economic stability over judicial appointments.