Five weeks before Election Day, Democratic leaders are expressing high confidence in reclaiming majorities in the House and potentially the Senate, citing President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and economic frustration among voters. However, internal party warnings and financial data suggest significant vulnerabilities, particularly in swing states like New Hampshire, where Republican fundraising advantages are widening the gap in the final stretch of the campaign.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican candidates are leveraging a significant financial advantage to dominate airwaves in key states. In New Hampshire, former Sen. John E. Sununu is running a well-known campaign backed by national GOP resources that have been redirected from states deemed less competitive.
Steve Marchand, a Democratic consultant and former New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate, noted that Republicans benefited from a strategic shift in funding. “Sununu has benefited from national money that got redirected from other states that are no longer seen as top targets, while Democrats were slower to invest,” Marchand said. He added that some Democrats felt their state was treated as a “fait accompli” while resources moved elsewhere.
Polls indicate that while Republicans face headwinds, their party cohesion remains strong compared to their opponents. Roughly 61% of Republicans describe their party as united, a sentiment that contrasts with the internal divisions reported among Democrats.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic pollster John Anzalone stated that the party is winning due to Republican struggles, noting, “It’s nothing we’re doing. We’re winning because they’re losing.” He argued that Trump’s actions, including the war with Iran and rising costs, are driving dramatic losses for the GOP, asserting that “America is the battleground state” for November.
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., dismissed concerns about the Democratic brand, stating, “We’ve made a much better case than them, and that’s why it looks like we’re going to win a bunch of House seats and probably win back the Senate.” He characterized the Republican brand as the one currently damaged.
Despite national optimism, New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley warned that national leaders have been “consistently overly optimistic” about expanding the midterm map. He expressed concern that resources were being diverted to less viable races, stating, “We don’t want to let this one slip away because they were sending resources to some other unicorns — some other state that’s just not possible.”
Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic candidate for Senate in New Hampshire, acknowledged the spending disparity and emphasized the critical nature of holding the seat. “The majority won’t be flipped if we don’t hold this seat in New Hampshire, so it’s really critical to the overall map,” Pappas said.
What the Numbers Show
According to data compiled by AdImpact, Republicans are outspending Democrats nationwide on campaign advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day by nearly 40%. Republicans are spending $1.63 billion compared to $1.19 billion for Democrats.
This spending advantage is pronounced in several key states. In Texas, Republicans are spending $262.4 million against Democrats’ $76.9 million. In Ohio, the GOP outspends Democrats $258.8 million to $160.4 million. In Florida, Republican spending stands at $99.3 million compared to $47.9 million for Democrats. In New Hampshire, the gap is narrower but significant, with Republicans spending $41.2 million versus $35.4 million for Democrats.
A Fox News poll from September found that 55% of voters hold a “strongly” or “somewhat” unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, while 58% hold a similar view of the Republican Party. President Trump’s unfavorable rating stands at 62%.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll revealed that about half of registered voters believe the Democratic Party is “too far to the left.” The same poll found that 6 in 10 Democratic-identifying voters say their party is divided, compared to only 37% of Republicans saying the same about the GOP.
The Bottom Line
The disparity in campaign spending and party cohesion presents a structural challenge for Democrats as they seek to flip seats in November. While national figures cite Trump’s unpopularity as a key driver for potential gains, the financial dominance of the Republican Party in critical battlegrounds like New Hampshire, Texas, and Ohio may offset enthusiasm advantages.
Voters in New Hampshire, such as small business owner Amber Morgan, highlighted economic uncertainty and tariff impacts as key issues, while also noting the Democratic Party’s struggle to define its platform beyond opposition to Trump. With only five weeks remaining, the effectiveness of Republican ad spending versus Democratic ground games will likely determine the control of the Senate and House.