The U.S. military is scheduled to conclude its mission in Iraq on Wednesday, ending a presence that began with the 2003 invasion and evolved into a campaign against the Islamic State. The withdrawal occurs despite an ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran that erupted earlier this year, creating a security environment significantly different from the one envisioned when the timeline was negotiated in 2024.
The deadline stems from an agreement reached between Washington and Baghdad under the Biden administration, based on Iraqi officials' assessment that their security forces could independently manage counterterrorism operations. This conclusion follows the 2021 U.S. departure from Afghanistan, which ended another two-decade war but was widely criticized for its chaotic execution and the resulting security vacuum.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative commentators and military critics highlight the dangers of withdrawing while a new war with Iran is active. They note that the remaining U.S. forces had served as a counterweight to Iranian influence and a target for Iran-backed militias, with Army Sgt. Michael Emmanuel Swinton killed in July during the detonation of a downed Iranian drone at Erbil Air Base. Critics argue that the withdrawal leaves a power vacuum that hostile actors are poised to fill.
The right also points to the failure of the disarmament plan for Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq. While Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi initially argued that U.S. departure would eliminate the justification for militias to remain armed, several powerful factions resisted surrendering weapons. U.S. military officials state these groups retain rockets, missiles, drones, and air defense systems capable of threatening American personnel and facilities across the region.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive voices and former administration officials point to the original rationale for the withdrawal: the diminishing threat of ISIS. The Defense Intelligence Agency assessed this summer that ISIS in Iraq "almost certainly remains severely degraded," focused on survival rather than expansion. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper noted in May that ISIS attacks in Iraq and Syria had fallen 70% since 2023, reaching their lowest levels since 2013.
Supporters of the timeline argue that the shift in U.S. strategy—moving Operation Inherent Resolve headquarters to Amman, Jordan, and transitioning American troops to training and advisory roles—reflects a successful transition of responsibility. They contend that the presence of U.S. forces had become a primary justification for Iran-backed militias to remain armed, and that removing that presence could ultimately facilitate stability, even if the short-term risks remain high.
What the Numbers Show
Approximately 2,500 U.S. troops have remained in Iraq as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition established in 2014 after ISIS seized large territories in Iraq and Syria. The mission's scope has narrowed significantly; rather than routine combat alongside Iraqi forces, recent operations focused on training, advising, and intelligence support. The DIA report indicates ISIS is unable to capitalize on instability from the war with Iran, though the group remains active.
The timeline for disarming Iran-backed militias in Iraq has been extended. Prime Minister Zaidi announced last week that the government now aims to complete the process by June 30, 2027, rather than the original Sept. 30 deadline. The new plan includes a 90-day period where armed groups halt attacks in exchange for assurances that U.S. forces will not target them, followed by gradual disarmament or integration into state control. Two prominent factions agreed to surrender weapons, while others refused, according to a U.S. government report.
The Bottom Line
The Pentagon has not confirmed whether the withdrawal timeline remains strictly on track or provided details on any residual U.S. military involvement after Wednesday. The Iraqi Embassy did not respond to requests for comment. The conclusion of the mission marks the end of a continuous U.S. military presence in Iraq that lasted 23 years, interrupted only by a brief withdrawal in 2011 before the 2014 return to combat ISIS.
Observers will watch closely to see if the extended disarmament timeline for Iran-backed militias holds and whether the absence of U.S. forces leads to increased attacks on remaining diplomatic or coalition assets. The shift in headquarters to Jordan suggests a continued regional focus, but the direct combat mission in Iraq is formally ending amid heightened tensions with Iran.