A new NBC News poll indicates that approximately 5% of American voters remain undecided on which party should control Congress following the November 2026 midterm elections. The survey, which included in-depth interviews with 16 of these voters, reveals that economic concerns, particularly the high cost of living and inflation, are the primary drivers of their hesitation. While half of all respondents stated a preference for Democratic control and 45% for Republican control, the undecided cohort expresses dissatisfaction with both major parties, citing a lack of representation of their financial realities and frustrations with ongoing foreign policy engagements.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic-leaning voters within the undecided group, such as Ibraham, a 42-year-old truck driver in Ohio, are looking to the party as a check against the current administration. Ibraham, who supported Kamala Harris in 2024, indicated he plans to back former Senator Sherrod Brown in the Ohio Senate race. "It’s not about Brown," Ibraham said. "It’s just voting against the Republicans for what they’re doing. That’s it." His decision is heavily influenced by the surging price of diesel, which has risen from $2,000 to between $3,500 and $3,700 weekly, a cost he attributes to GOP-controlled federal policies.
Other voters expressing cautious support for Democrats cited the war in Iran as a decisive factor. Kevin, a 35-year-old civil engineer in Massachusetts who voted for Donald Trump in 2024, stated he is leaning toward re-electing Democratic Senator Ed Markey to help end the conflict. "It goes back to the checks and balances," Kevin said. "I want to see a Democratic-controlled Congress end the war in Iran." Similarly, Kaleb Saracino, a 21-year-old Nevada resident, noted that the costs of "endless wars" have driven up grocery and gas prices, leading him to lean toward Democrats despite feeling that both parties serve career politicians rather than the American people.
What the Right Is Saying
Voters leaning toward the Republican Party or third-party options within this undecided group are primarily motivated by economic management and skepticism of progressive policies. James Morton, a 67-year-old retired truck driver in Colorado who voted for Trump in 2024, criticized Democrats for having "gone too far to the left towards socialism." He also expressed dissatisfaction with Republicans, describing them as "globalists" who neglect working-class interests. Morton is considering third-party candidates, stating his decision will rest entirely on whether a candidate can lower the cost of living.
Connor Woodring, a 22-year-old independent from Colorado who supported Trump in 2024, voiced disdain for both major parties but identified Republicans as the "warmongering side" while criticizing Democrats for trying to "pull at your heartstrings." He expressed a preference for voting for someone outside the two-party system, though he acknowledged that circumstances could change before November. Meanwhile, some voters who previously supported Trump are now disillusioned with his handling of the economy and foreign policy, with one California voter, Aaron L., noting that the Republican Party seems to "just follow whatever Donald Trump says" amidst an economy he described as "a mess."
What the Numbers Show
The NBC News poll surveyed voters last month, finding that 50% wanted Democrats to win control of Congress in the midterms, while 45% wanted Republicans to retain or gain control. The remaining 5% are undecided, a group the network interviewed extensively to understand their motivations. In the survey, voters ranked cost of living and inflation as the most important issues facing the country, followed by government corruption and threats to democracy.
Specific financial data points cited by voters illustrate the economic pressure. Ibraham reported a weekly diesel cost increase of $1,500, jumping from $2,000 to over $3,500. Joanne, a 72-year-old Vermont independent, highlighted the strain of medication costs, including insulin for her husband. Luke Melanson, a retired construction worker in Louisiana, stated he is eating less food due to grocery prices. Darien Thompson, a security guard in South Carolina, noted that commuting costs are rising while home ownership remains out of reach. These individual accounts align with the broader polling data indicating that economic affordability is the dominant concern for the electorate.
The Bottom Line
The decisions made by this small but significant percentage of undecided voters could determine the final composition of the 2027 Congress, influencing which party holds the majority and the margin of seats. The interviews reveal a pervasive sentiment that neither major party adequately addresses the financial struggles of everyday Americans, with many voters feeling alienated by both progressive economic policies and conservative foreign policy decisions. As the November elections approach, candidates will likely face pressure to focus specifically on immediate cost-of-living relief and to clarify their stances on the war in Iran to win over these pivotal swing voters.