Senate Republicans are increasing ad spending in Kansas to support incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, a state Democrats have not won in a Senate race since 1932. The Senate Leadership Fund, the primary super PAC for Senate Republicans, reserved over $8 million in advertising starting this weekend, according to tracking firm AdImpact.
The move comes amid a challenging national political environment for the GOP, driven by rising diesel and fertilizer prices linked to the war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Private polling from both parties indicates a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, despite Trump carrying Kansas by 16 points in 2024.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans acknowledge the race has tightened due to economic pressures in the agriculture-heavy state. Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party, noted that Hamilton’s ability to reach conservative-leaning churchgoers has been a concern from the start. "I personally know people who attend or have attended that church in the past," Herbert said. "The ones that I know are right-leaning, and so that's troublesome. That's trouble — just the sheer ability to reach some of those people who are just always our people."
Senior Senate GOP aides described the situation as a "perfect storm," citing the impact of tariffs, high fuel prices, increased foreign beef imports, and immigration enforcement actions. Vice President JD Vance campaigned with Marshall in Olathe in mid-September and criticized Hamilton’s messaging, saying he "tells his congregation not about the gospel of Jesus Christ, but that they need to repent for their white privilege while eating beef." Marshall himself recently criticized the Trump administration’s ICE operations in western Kansas, stating they should have coordinated with local law enforcement.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats view the sudden influx of Republican spending as validation of their campaign strategy. Adam Hamilton, a pastor leading the largest United Methodist church in the country, stated in an interview with The Conversation that the millions poured into Kansas signal that Republicans do not expect to save Marshall. "I take it as a compliment that the Republicans are now going, 'Oh my gosh, we didn't think we were going to have to put money into Kansas, and now we're going to pour millions of dollars in to try to save Roger Marshall,'" Hamilton said. "And I don't think they're going to save him."
The Democratic campaign argues that Hamilton’s appeal extends beyond traditional partisan lines, particularly in suburban Kansas City where his congregation includes right-leaning members. Lower Costs Now, a super PAC affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ organization, dropped approximately $700,000 into the state recently, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has included Kansas in private fundraising pitches to donors.
What the Numbers Show
Private polling shared with POLITICO shows the race is effectively tied or within the margin of error. Internal polling for Hamilton and a recent poll for the Democratic Attorneys General Association found him tied or leading by a few points. On the Republican side, one GOP poll showed Marshall trailing within the margin of error, with President Trump’s approval rating underwater in Kansas since summer. Another private GOP poll found a tied Senate race.
The financial commitment reflects the shift in status of the state. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $8 million buy in Kansas coincided with a pullback in spending in North Carolina. Historically, Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas in 94 years, and Trump won the state by 16 points in the 2024 presidential election. The agricultural sector in the Midwest, including Kansas, has faced specific economic headwinds from trade policies, contributing to tighter races in neighboring states like Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska.
The Bottom Line
The race in Kansas illustrates the vulnerability of Republican incumbents in deep-red states when economic conditions deteriorate. The influx of both Democratic and Republican spending signals that both parties view the seat as competitive, a significant shift from earlier in the campaign cycle. Republicans are currently defending seats in several red-leaning states, with former Rep. Don Bacon attributing the tightening races to "policies and the chaos" surrounding tariffs and costs. The outcome will depend on whether economic grievances in the heartland translate into voter turnout for the Democratic challenger or if Republican institutional advantages in a traditionally safe state hold firm.