Senior Republicans and GOP officials are privately urging President Donald Trump’s political apparatus to increase spending on the Texas Senate race, fearing that a lack of continued financial support could jeopardize the party’s majority, according to three people with direct knowledge of the conversations granted anonymity by POLITICO. The urgency stems from leaked audio in which Texas Attorney General and Senate candidate Ken Paxton criticized President Trump’s recent midterm convention, raising concerns that MAGA Inc. might halt its ad bookings when the current wave expires on Oct. 12.
The race has become a significant financial burden for the Republican Party, with outside groups already on track to spend over $200 million to sustain Paxton’s campaign. As national Democrats begin spending for their nominee, James Talarico, and polling tightens, GOP strategists are expressing alarm about the cost of keeping Texas in the Republican column while also defending seats in states like Michigan and New Hampshire.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic officials and strategists view the tightening race as an opportunity to capitalize on Republican internal divisions and the high cost of Paxton’s campaign. National Democrats have recently begun spending for Senate nominee James Talarico after months of holding off, signaling confidence that the race is competitive. The Democratic perspective focuses on the narrative that Paxton’s campaign is struggling due to unforced errors and a lack of strategic direction, as noted by some Republican insiders who question Paxton’s commitment to winning.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican leaders and operatives are divided on the best path forward, with some expressing frustration over Paxton’s actions and others emphasizing the necessity of winning Texas to maintain the Senate majority. One GOP senator described the situation as a "five-alarm fire," while a Republican strategist in the state called it a "slow-moving car crash" with a 75% chance of a catastrophic result for the GOP Senate majority if not addressed. President Trump acknowledged the concern, stating at a rally in Oklahoma that the campaign is "worried about Michigan" and "worried about Texas," though he later affirmed that Paxton had been "at my side more than anybody." Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) Executive Director Alex Latcham stated that the group’s investment in Texas "affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico."
What the Numbers Show
MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend nearly $45 million on direct mail, television, and digital advertising in Texas through Oct. 12, an increase from a previous $20 million commitment. The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) poured an additional $60 million into the Texas race on Wednesday, bringing its total expenditure there to a record-breaking $131 million. When combined with MAGA Inc. spending and other GOP ad reservations, the total outside Republican spending is projected to exceed $200 million. Paxton’s own campaign recently announced a $20 million ad buy, one of the largest single media investments in a Texas Senate race. Despite these figures, some Republicans want MAGA Inc. to take over spending in Texas to allow SLF to redirect resources to other tight races, a shift that has not yet occurred.
The Bottom Line
The Texas Senate race has evolved into a critical test of the Republican Party’s financial endurance and its ability to manage internal discord in a high-stakes election. With the current wave of MAGA Inc. ad bookings set to expire on Oct. 12, the decision on whether to continue heavy spending will likely determine the trajectory of the race in the final weeks. Republicans are weighing the cost of saving Paxton’s campaign against the potential impact on their ability to defend or flip seats in other competitive states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio. President Trump is scheduled to visit Texas again next week for a rally in San Antonio, where his rhetoric may further influence the spending decisions of key GOP political organizations.