Republicans across the United States are centering their midterm election campaigns on public disorder, illegal immigration, and violent crime, seeking to offset voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the ongoing war with Iran. The strategy involves highlighting what officials describe as record low levels of violent crime and emphasizing law and order themes in states ranging from Georgia to Texas.
House Speaker Mike Johnson recently stated at Louisiana State University that the country currently has the lowest violent crime rate in 126 years, attributing this to an emphasis on the rule of law. President Donald Trump also addressed the issue in Nebraska, contrasting the current border security situation with the period before his return to the White House, stating, "We had a border with people pouring in, crime like nobody's ever seen."
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic candidates and officials are countering Republican attacks by highlighting their own public safety records and criticizing what they view as overreach in immigration enforcement. In Texas, Democratic nominee for governor Gina Hinojosa has campaigned on her tenure as a civil rights lawyer, arguing that Governor Greg Abbott’s crime policies violate civil liberties. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms responded to attacks from billionaire Rick Jackson by noting that her administration gave pay raises to police and firefighters and called for increased federal funding for public safety.
National Democrats argue that the Republican focus on crime is undercut by recent actions taken by the Trump administration. Senator Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, described the current White House as "the biggest criminal organization that we've ever seen," citing the killing of two American protesters in January and fatal shootings of multiple undocumented people during hardline immigration enforcement. Democrats are also hammering Republicans for alleged complicity in the president's self-dealing.
In congressional races, Democratic candidates have aired ads featuring endorsements from local sheriffs and police officers to rebut claims that they are soft on crime. Shannon Taylor in Virginia and Manny Rutinel in Colorado both emphasized plans for greater police funding and drug prevention programs, while Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin vowed to fully fund police departments in Congress.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican candidates are framing the election as a choice between order and chaos, warning that Democratic victories could lead to defunding the police. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has criticized Hinojosa for not supporting legislation that would require judges to deny bail to illegal immigrants charged with violent crimes. Rick Jackson, a Republican candidate for governor in Georgia, attacked Bottoms by saying, "I know who gets hurt when politicians defund the police," referencing his upbringing in neighborhoods he claims were abandoned by her administration.
In competitive House districts, Republicans are leveraging personal law enforcement backgrounds. Michael Bouchard in Michigan’s 10th district is running on his service as a Bronze Star Army captain and his family’s law enforcement history, accusing his opponent of supporting "woke, soft on crime, socialist policies." Similarly, Representative Gabe Evans in Colorado is touting his time as a police officer, while Representative Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin is characterizing his Democratic opponent as a communist who wants to defund the police.
Senator Eric Schmitt of Missouri, a former state attorney general, argued that Republicans are the "victim of our own success" because crime is off the headlines. He noted that having a "completely secure border" is a major accomplishment that often goes unnoticed. White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis stated that "extreme Democrats are trying to deflect from their radical soft on crime agenda."
What the Numbers Show
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September indicated that border security remains a relative strength for President Trump, with 48% of U.S. adults approving of his performance on the issue. However, this represents a decline from 55% approval recorded a year prior. Data indicates that crime rates have generally trended downward since the 1990s, with a brief spike during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite the emphasis on crime, some senior Republicans question its efficacy as a winning issue. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who is not seeking reelection, stated, "I don't see that bubbling up as a major issue for the voters." Tillis noted his personal sense of safety in Charlotte, saying he is "not worried about walking through Charlotte at night." Meanwhile, Republican campaigns are spending heavily on ads claiming Democratic candidates went easy on convicts, such as those targeting North Carolina nominee Roy Cooper.
The Bottom Line
The Republican strategy aims to reenergize a disillusioned base and attract moderate voters who have drifted due to concerns about affordability. However, the effectiveness of this message remains uncertain, with internal party skepticism and declining approval numbers on border security suggesting potential headwinds. Black political leaders have criticized recent Republican ads invoking the 1988 "Willie Horton" campaign as reminiscent of past dog-whistle politics, adding a layer of racial tension to the debate. The coming months will reveal whether the focus on law and order can overcome voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and foreign policy.