Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley has no television advertisements currently booked for the final weeks of North Carolina’s Senate race, according to political ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The pause comes as his campaign faces a widening polling gap against Democrat Roy Cooper and national Republican groups scale back their spending in the state.
Whatley’s last broadcast television ad aired on October 7. As of Wednesday, his campaign had no future linear TV reservations scheduled through Election Day, November 3. This absence of advertising contrasts sharply with the spending activity of his opponent and allied Democratic groups.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists point to the advertising gap as evidence of a struggling Republican campaign. Cooper’s campaign has reserved $7.4 million in future television spots, while Democrat-aligned outside groups have secured an additional $11.2 million for the race. This results in a roughly four-to-one advantage in future booked television spending for the Democratic side.
Kate Smart, a spokeswoman for Cooper, characterized the Republican campaign's claims about their strategy as "desperate lies." She highlighted the former governor’s more than 350 campaign events and asserted that Cooper is in excellent health and capable of serving a full term in the Senate. Cooper has criticized President Donald Trump’s policies, including tariffs and the conflict with Iran, arguing they have raised costs for North Carolina families.
What the Right Is Saying
The Whatley campaign stated that the pause in television advertising is temporary and insisted it has the resources to compete. DJ Griffin, a campaign spokesman, said, "It’s a temporary pause and we’ll be back on the air shortly with our closing message." Griffin noted that the upcoming message may question Cooper’s health and ability to serve in the Senate and expressed confidence in a November victory.
National Republican groups have also adjusted their strategies. The Senate Leadership Fund, a major GOP-aligned super PAC, paused its spending in the state earlier this month, following months of polling that showed Cooper ahead. Doug Heye, a longtime Republican strategist from North Carolina, noted that the seat was "always going to be a tough seat for Rs to hold," citing Trump’s low approval ratings and Cooper’s history of winning statewide elections.
What the Numbers Show
The latest WRAL/WSOC poll conducted by SurveyUSA found Cooper leading Whatley by 14 points, 54% to 40%, among likely voters. The survey was conducted October 7–11 and included 643 respondents who had already voted by mail or indicated they were likely to vote. This follows multiple polls in September that also showed Cooper with a double-digit lead.
AdImpact data reveals a significant disparity in future television reservations. Cooper’s campaign holds $7.4 million in future bookings, while Whatley’s campaign has none currently scheduled. Outside group spending further widens the gap, with Democratic-aligned groups reserving $11.2 million compared to $4.7 million for Republican-aligned groups. Additionally, the poll found that 37% of likely voters approved of Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapproved.
The Bottom Line
The North Carolina Senate seat is open due to the retirement of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Republicans had initially treated the state as a key battleground, but the data and advertising trends suggest a strategic retreat. Democrats are also recalibrating, with Senate Majority PAC pausing some North Carolina advertising to redirect resources to other contests, though they retain a significant advantage in media buy.
President Trump is scheduled to return to North Carolina for a rally in Greenville on October 20, coinciding with the first week of in-person early voting. The expected narrowing of the race as Election Day approaches has not yet materialized in polling data, leaving the Republican campaign with a difficult path to victory if the current trends hold.