Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his chief political rivals have stated they will not form a coalition government with Arab-led parties following the October 27 Israeli election, a stance that could lead to months of political gridlock or a new round of voting. While Arab politicians hold the potential to be decisive kingmakers in a tight race, the major Jewish-majority blocs have ruled out partnership, even as Arab parties seek to leverage their influence to secure policy changes for Palestinian citizens of Israel.
The election occurs in a political landscape where no single party is expected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. This arithmetic gives small parties, including the Islamist Ra'am party led by Mansour Abbas and the Joint List, outsized influence. However, the refusal of both the right-wing Likud bloc and the centrist opposition to engage with Arab-led parties creates a structural deadlock. Abbas, who broke a long-standing taboo by joining a coalition in 2021, has faced renewed isolation in the current campaign cycle.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative and right-wing leaders maintain that Israel is a Jewish state where minorities have equal rights, but they argue that security concerns and national identity preclude coalition partnerships with Arab-led parties. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has described Palestinian citizens of Israel as an "internal front" in the war and "an existential threat to the state." This framing suggests that Arab parties, which often advocate for Palestinian national rights, are incompatible with the security priorities of the current right-wing government.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and other right-wing figures point to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack as a reason for strict security measures and limited political integration of Arab parties. While Mansour Abbas condemned the attack and focused his campaign on local issues like crime, right-wing critics argue that Arab parties have not sufficiently addressed the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Israeli government maintains that its crackdown on certain speech and protests is rooted in security concerns, particularly given the family ties many Palestinian citizens have to those in Gaza and the West Bank.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive and Arab political leaders argue that excluding Arab parties from coalition negotiations undermines democratic representation and ignores the needs of 20% of Israel's population. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, described the stakes as "existential" and stated, "We have to use our political power in order to basically block the deterioration of the situation." Jabareen noted that while his party maintains a less conciliatory line than Abbas' Ra'am, both groups face similar barriers to power.
Rights organizations like Adalah highlight the disparity in how the state treats Palestinian citizens, noting that while protests are heavily policed, violent crime is under-addressed. Hassan Jabareen, general director of Adalah, argued that the perceived over-policing of speech and under-policing of crime leaves Palestinians feeling "less like citizens and more like threats to be contained." He stated, "We have to choose between the danger of being killed and being discriminated against." Activists emphasize that Palestinian citizens participate in the economy, serve in the medical field, and pay taxes, yet feel their needs are ignored by the government.
What the Numbers Show
Palestinian citizens of Israel make up approximately 20% of the country's population. The Abraham Initiatives, an organization advocating for equal rights, reported 184 crime-related killings in Arab communities so far this year. The group stated that only 12% of killings reported in the first half of 2026 had been solved. Data indicates that the homicide rate among Palestinian citizens is more than 22 times higher than among Jewish Israelis, while arrest and indictment rates are significantly lower.
According to Adalah, at least 200 Palestinian citizens indicted for speech-related offenses have been classified as security prisoners under the tenure of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. These individuals have reportedly faced conditions including overcrowding and food restrictions. In the 2021-2022 period, Mansour Abbas' Ra'am party joined a coalition government, a first for an Arab-led party, but that government lasted only a little over a year before new elections returned Netanyahu to power. Polling and seat projections suggest no bloc will secure a clear majority in the upcoming election, necessitating coalition-building.
The Bottom Line
The refusal of major Jewish-majority parties to partner with Arab-led factions creates a high risk of political paralysis. If no coalition can be formed, Israel may face a fourth consecutive election, with Netanyahu's government remaining in place as a caretaker administration. The outcome will depend on whether any party leader chooses to break the taboo and engage with Arab politicians, or if the current deadlock persists, leaving Palestinian citizens without direct representation in the executive branch. The election serves as a critical test of whether Israel's democratic institutions can accommodate its Arab minority within the framework of a Jewish state.