Election officials in several key states are preparing for a prolonged vote-counting period this midterm cycle, with some congressional and Senate races potentially remaining uncalled for days or weeks after Election Day. The delay stems from a combination of tight margins and slow processing speeds for mail-in ballots, particularly in California and Alaska, where competitive races coincide with logistical bottlenecks.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive election advocates and officials argue that the slow counting process is a byproduct of expansive voting access policies, such as universal mail-in balloting, rather than administrative failure. Kim Alexander, director of the California Voter Foundation, stated that the state prioritizes voter rights, noting, "We have all these amazing rights and opportunities that we give to our voters, and the price we're paying is a longer vote count." Alexander emphasized that California has allocated $40 million to speed up counting and educate voters on submitting ballots earlier to mitigate delays.
Supporters of these policies contend that the scrutiny on states like California is politically motivated. Alexander noted that the state has been "beaten up by this president for over a decade" over its election processes, suggesting that the focus on counting speed is part of a broader effort to undermine confidence in jurisdictions that favor mail-in voting.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative election officials and commentators have expressed frustration with the extended timelines, citing the stress and misinformation that arise when results are not immediate. Stephen Richer, the former clerk and recorder for Maricopa County, Arizona, described election nights as "hell" due to the volume of ballots and the resulting public pressure. Richer, a Republican, noted that close races invite intense scrutiny and conspiracy theories, stating, "You have everyone blowing up your phone, everyone saying that you're incompetent or corrupt or worse."
Richer and other conservative voices argue that the perception of delay is exacerbated by the media and political opponents who focus on slow-counting states. They contend that while the counting process itself is routine, the political narrative surrounding it creates unnecessary tension and doubt among voters who expect immediate results.
What the Numbers Show
The timing of election calls is primarily determined by the margin of victory and the speed of ballot processing, according to experts. Charles Stewart, an elections expert at MIT, explained that news organizations call races based on initial returns and demographics, a process that accelerates when margins are wide. In states like Utah, where Republican candidates often win by large margins, races are called quickly, creating an illusion of complete counting despite similar processing speeds to slower states.
California has historically been among the slowest states to complete its count. A phenomenon described as the "pig in the python" problem contributes to this delay, as millions of vote-by-mail ballots are returned on Election Day and require time-consuming signature verification and processing. Data from the California Voter Foundation indicates that some counties see up to 50% of mail-in ballots turned in on Election Day.
Alaska presents another significant bottleneck. According to MIT Election Lab data, Alaska was the last state to reach 95% of its ballots counted in 2024. The state’s sole House race that year, which Republican Nicholas Begich won by fewer than 10,000 votes, was not called by the Associated Press until November 20, roughly two weeks after Election Day. Current polling suggests a tight Senate race in Alaska this year, which could similarly delay final results.
However, the number of competitive races in California has decreased. Ahead of the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report identified nine competitive congressional districts in the state. For the current cycle, following a mid-cycle redistricting initiative, California has only three districts considered competitive. This reduction may lessen the national spotlight on California’s counting process compared to previous cycles.
The Bottom Line
The delay in finalizing results in key states is a structural feature of the current voting landscape, driven by high mail-in ballot usage and close margins in competitive districts. While California’s reduced number of competitive races may ease some national tension, the tightness of the Alaska Senate race means that control of the U.S. Senate could remain uncertain for weeks. Voters and media organizations are advised to anticipate a gradual release of data rather than immediate certainty, a reality that officials say is consistent with accurate and thorough vote counting.