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Data & Analysis

Democrats Condemn Pollster After Wedgewood Admits Fabricating Survey Data

The polling firm claimed its fake numbers were an experiment on industry oversight, but critics argue the stunt disrupted primary races and donor funding.

Kamala Harris — Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped)
Photo: Lawrence Jackson (Public domain) via Wikimedia Commons
⚡ The Bottom Line

The Wedgewood Polling incident highlights significant gaps in the verification processes used by major media outlets and polling aggregators. While the firm claimed its experiment was aimed at exposing industry weaknesses, the practical effect included the misallocation of campaign resources and distorted narratives in high-stakes primary races. The removal of the data by key aggregators like T...

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Wedgewood Polling, a self-described election survey company, admitted Tuesday night that it used fabricated numbers in recent surveys, describing the release as an "experimental project" to demonstrate vulnerabilities in the political polling industry. The admission has drawn sharp criticism from Democratic candidates and strategists whose campaigns were influenced by the fictitious data, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin primary races. The firm stated the experiment was not intended to sway elections but served as a "wake-up call" regarding data integrity and vetting standards.

The fabricated polls were widely cited by media outlets and campaign organizations. The nonpartisan aggregator Political Polls referenced Wedgewood data in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, showing socialist candidate Francesca Hong with an edge over Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany. In Michigan, the polls were cited by Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign during a competitive Democratic primary against Sen. Mallory McMorrow and Rep. Haley Stevens. Major outlets, including The New York Times and Decision Desk HQ, have since removed the Wedgewood data from their projections.

What the Right Is Saying

While the primary criticism has come from Democratic circles due to the specific races affected, conservative commentators have also weighed in on the implications for media trust and data integrity. The Fox News report highlighted the disruption to the Michigan Senate race, where former U.S. House Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., is currently competing against Abdul El-Sayed, who advanced from the Democratic primary after being boosted by the fabricated polls. Critics on the right have pointed to the incident as evidence of broader media and polling industry failures, with legal scholar Jonathan Turley describing the stunt as a "reckless game with real races."

The Republican candidate in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, Rep. Tom Tiffany, was shown trailing in the fabricated polls, which may have influenced voter perception and donor confidence in his campaign. Although specific quotes from Tiffany's camp were not detailed in the source material, the removal of the data by aggregators suggests a recognition that the polls distorted the competitive landscape. The incident underscores ongoing tensions between establishment figures and far-left challengers, with the fabricated data temporarily inflating the perceived viability of candidates like Francesca Hong and Abdul El-Sayed.

What the Left Is Saying

Democratic leaders and strategists have expressed anger and concern over the impact of the fake polls on legitimate campaigns. Sen. Mallory McMorrow stated that the fabricated numbers led to a drying up of donations and prompted reporters to pressure her to drop out of the race. "Sure, a point was proven. Polling is broken. But tens of thousands of people poured their hearts, time, energy, hard-earned money into something they believed in - for a year-and-a-half, and it was treated like a game," McMorrow said in a statement on X. She emphasized that trust in political processes is already low and urged media organizations to scrutinize polling sources more rigorously.

Veteran Democratic strategist Mike Nellis, a former advisor to Kamala Harris, labeled the individuals behind Wedgewood as "absolute scumbags" and argued that their actions constituted fraud. "They can try to claim that they have some moral high ground here, but they lied about their polling data, got caught, and are freaking out because they've committed fraud," Nellis said. He called for potential prosecution and noted that both Democrats and Republicans should reflect on verification methods, stating, "The people responsible for this should be run out of American politics."

Former Obama staffer Tommy Vietor described Wedgewood's actions on X as "lying and fraud," while independent outlet FiftyPlusOne co-founder G. Elliott Morris stated that his team was investigating the firm for faking data when the statement was released. Morris wrote, "They are trying to cover up their fraud with the 'we were doing a social experiment' excuse."

What the Numbers Show

The New York Times removed 15 polls released by Wedgewood between June and October after the firm admitted to fabricating data. Decision Desk HQ removed 17 Wedgewood polls from its projections but stated that the removal did not change projected seat totals or chamber control probabilities in the Senate or House. In the Michigan Democratic primary, Abdul El-Sayed advanced, while Francesca Hong lost the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary to an establishment-backed candidate. Wedgewood had also previously launched a GoFundMe campaign for Nebraska polling, raising $500 of its intended $5,000 goal. Strategist Jennifer Holdsworth noted that McMorrow’s campaign was being outspent by $80 million at the time the fake polls reportedly impacted donor behavior.

The Bottom Line

The Wedgewood Polling incident highlights significant gaps in the verification processes used by major media outlets and polling aggregators. While the firm claimed its experiment was aimed at exposing industry weaknesses, the practical effect included the misallocation of campaign resources and distorted narratives in high-stakes primary races. The removal of the data by key aggregators like The New York Times and Decision Desk HQ indicates a move toward stricter vetting, but questions remain regarding accountability and potential legal consequences for the individuals involved. Campaigns and media organizations are now reviewing their reliance on third-party polling data, with calls for greater transparency regarding sample methods, funding sources, and pollster identities.

Sources