Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., stated that Republicans will outperform current polling and retain their narrow 53-to-47 seat majority in the Senate, despite GOP-aligned groups withdrawing millions of dollars from struggling races in Georgia and North Carolina. Speaking during a campaign stop in Fremont, Nebraska, for Sen. Pete Ricketts, Thune acknowledged that while the party faces headwinds, he believes the polling data does not accurately reflect Republican support.
The prediction comes as the November 3 election approaches and several Senate contests tighten. While Thune expressed confidence in the GOP’s ability to hold its majority, financial moves by major Republican political action committees suggest a strategic reassessment of which races are winnable. The Senate Leadership Fund, closely aligned with Thune, has redirected significant resources away from states where Democratic candidates have gained ground, focusing instead on contests that have unexpectedly become competitive.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic strategists and candidates point to the shifting money flows as evidence that the Republican campaign is struggling to maintain its foothold in key states. In Georgia, incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., has consistently led in polling against Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., aided by strong fundraising performance. The decision by the Senate Leadership Fund to reduce its initial $44 million pledge to support Collins has been interpreted by Democrats as a signal of waning Republican confidence in flipping the seat.
Similarly, in North Carolina, the pullback of outside funding from the race between former RNC co-chair Michael Whatley and former Gov. Roy Cooper, D-N.C., highlights challenges for Republicans in defending the open seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. Democratic analysts argue that these financial retreats, combined with recent polling shifts in states like Mississippi and South Carolina, indicate a broader trend favoring Democrats. They contend that the 'headwinds' Thune acknowledged are more severe than the Majority Leader admits, suggesting a potential Democratic takeover of the chamber.
What the Right Is Saying
Senate Majority Leader John Thune argued that current polling 'under-reflects the Republican vote,' citing historical patterns in past elections. In an interview with Fox News Digital, Thune described several contests as 'jump balls' or 'margin of error races,' asserting that the GOP is not giving up on any of them. He emphasized that success in these close races depends on turnout, specifically mobilizing 'low propensity, particularly Trump, voters' and winning over the middle of the electorate.
President Donald Trump also weighed in on the North Carolina race, expressing concern for candidate Michael Whatley while maintaining support. 'I think he’s a great man, and I am worried about him,' Trump told reporters earlier this month. 'I hope he wins. He was a great leader for the whole Republican Party when I won, and he’d be a great senator.' Despite the withdrawal of funds, Thune remains optimistic, stating, 'I think that we're gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election day,' and noting that resources are being invested heavily in turnout operations across the country.
What the Numbers Show
According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans are defending six toss-up races in this cycle. Recent ratings have shifted several previously safe Republican seats, including Mississippi and South Carolina, to be more favorable toward Democrats. The Senate Leadership Fund initially pledged $44 million to support Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia but has since moved money from that race to Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., faces an unexpected competitive challenge.
In North Carolina, the Senate Leadership Fund pulled back nearly all of its spending earlier this month, a move indicative of reduced confidence in Michael Whatley’s chances against Roy Cooper. The overall midterm cycle has seen hundreds of millions of dollars spent by Republican PACs and outside groups, but the allocation of these funds has become a critical indicator of campaign viability. Polling in Georgia shows Sen. Ossoff leading Rep. Collins, while Kansas has emerged as a tight contest, prompting the redirection of GOP resources.
The Bottom Line
The divergence between Thune’s public optimism and the strategic withdrawal of campaign funds highlights the uncertainty facing the Republican Party in the final weeks of the midterm election. The outcome of the Senate majority will likely hinge on turnout in a handful of tight races, including Kansas, Georgia, and North Carolina. As Election Day approaches, the effectiveness of Republican efforts to mobilize low-propensity voters will be tested against the current polling trends that favor Democrats in several key states.