National Republicans are arguing that California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 2025 redistricting effort could backfire in the upcoming elections, citing a new poll in California’s 48th Congressional District that shows the race far closer than projected. The survey, conducted by The Tarrance Group from October 17 to 20, places Republican candidate Jim Desmond just three percentage points behind his Democratic opponent, Marni von Wilpert, despite significant outside spending aimed at defeating him.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans contend that the close polling numbers demonstrate the failure of Democrats’ spending to overcome what they describe as a flawed candidate and unpopular state leadership. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Christian Martinez stated, “Democrats can’t sell Marni von Wilpert’s disastrous record, and they can’t spend enough to bury it.” Martinez argued that the Democratic strategy is defined by arrogance and expensive advertising that has not shifted voter sentiment. Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor and former mayor of San Marcos, said in a statement to The Daily Wire, “They’ve spent millions attacking me, and voters aren’t buying it.” Desmond emphasized that voters are reacting to years of failed state policies, citing higher taxes and costs. He has campaigned on reducing taxes, cutting costs, and opposing regulations, while seeking to distinguish himself from President Trump on certain issues despite receiving the president’s endorsement. The Desmond campaign noted that more than $7.5 million has been spent attacking him since the beginning of September.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders and candidates in the district point to the structural advantages created by the new map as evidence of a shifting political landscape in Southern California. The district, which covers parts of San Diego and Riverside counties, was redrawn to transform a previously Republican-leaning seat into a competitive battleground. Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member, has centered her campaign on affordability, support for Israel, and opposition to President Donald Trump’s policies, presenting herself as a mainstream Democrat with a history of winning in competitive territory. According to CalMatters, von Wilpert raised $4.5 million for her campaign, outpacing Desmond’s $3 million. Democratic-aligned groups, including House Majority PAC and Democratic Majority for Israel, have invested heavily in the race, contributing to the more than $6 million in independent expenditures reported by CalMatters. Democrats argue that the new map reflects the changing demographics and voter preferences of the region, noting that the district gained a three-percentage-point voter registration advantage for Democrats when it was redrawn.
What the Numbers Show
The Tarrance Group poll, commissioned by the Desmond campaign, surveyed 410 likely voters in California’s 48th Congressional District. The results show von Wilpert leading Desmond 47% to 44%, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. The survey also found that Governor Newsom holds a 37% favorable rating and a 53% unfavorable rating among voters registered with no party preference. Financial disclosures reported by CalMatters indicate that independent expenditures in the race have exceeded $6 million, with nearly all of that spending supporting von Wilpert. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as “Lean Democratic.” The district has a partisan voting index (PVI) of D+2, indicating a slight Democratic lean based on recent presidential voting patterns. The race follows the retirement of Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who represented the area for over two decades.
The Bottom Line
The tight polling in California’s 48th District highlights the volatility of races reshaped by recent redistricting efforts. While Democrats point to fundraising advantages and structural map changes as reasons for optimism, Republicans argue that the close margin indicates voter resistance to Democratic spending and state leadership. The outcome of this race, along with others in newly drawn districts, may serve as a bellwether for the effectiveness of gerrymandering strategies in the 2026 midterm elections. Analysts will watch to see if the $7.5 million in independent spending against Desmond translates into a final victory for von Wilpert or if the Republican candidate can close the three-point gap before Election Day.