Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is preparing for the possibility of divided government following the Nov. 3 midterm elections, as election forecasters suggest Republicans face a significant challenge in retaining control of the House of Representatives. While Thune remains publicly confident in his party’s ability to hold both chambers, he acknowledged that a Democratic takeover of the House would create a different legislative dynamic for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
If Democrats secure a House majority, Thune would likely be required to work with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who has led Democrats in the lower chamber since 2023. The two leaders have engaged in sharp partisan exchanges throughout the current congressional term, particularly during recent budget negotiations and government shutdowns.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leadership has framed the upcoming election as a referendum on President Trump’s presidency and the Republican congressional agenda. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been critical of Senate Majority Leader Thune’s negotiating tactics, accusing him of "trying to bluff his way into an agreement" on federal spending during the 2025 government shutdown. In response to Thune’s earlier comments characterizing Democrats as being controlled by their left flank, Jeffries stated that it was Thune who was "scared of his own shadow."
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has also been a central figure in the partisan standoff, particularly regarding funding for the Department of Homeland Security. Democratic messaging focuses on the economic pressures facing voters and President Trump’s approval ratings, which have dipped to historic lows according to recent polling data cited by the source.
What the Right Is Saying
Senate Majority Leader John Thune dismissed the likelihood of a Democratic House takeover, stating, "I don't assume for a minute that's going to happen." Speaking on the campaign trail in Nebraska, Thune argued that when voters "look at the choices in front of them," Republicans have a "really good shot at hanging on both the House and the Senate."
Thune emphasized that maintaining Republican control of the Senate is vital to continuing key components of President Trump’s agenda, specifically the confirmation of judicial and executive branch nominations. "If you want to see the country succeed and move forward, we've got to have a majority in the U.S. Senate to work with this president," Thune said. He noted that while he hopes to keep the House as well, his immediate focus is on securing the Senate majority through intensive campaigning in competitive races.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has also downplayed concerns about GOP midterm performance, describing himself as "very bullish" despite Democrats eyeing a House takeover. Republicans argue that their legislative record, including the passage of the "big, beautiful bill" and a housing affordability package, demonstrates their effectiveness in governance.
What the Numbers Show
According to the Cook Political Report, seven Senate races are currently classified as toss-ups, though forecasters predict the Senate may remain in Republican control. The outlook for the House is more uncertain, with dozens of battleground seats considered in play and shifting favorably toward Democrats.
The Pew Research Center reports that the split Congress from 2023 to early 2025, when Republicans controlled the House and Democrats held a slim Senate majority, produced 106 laws. In contrast, the current unified government under President Trump has produced 121 laws so far, a figure achieved despite historically long government shutdowns.
Republicans have held the House since the 2022 elections, which occurred during the final year of former President Joe Biden’s term. President Trump’s approval ratings are cited as a factor in the current polling environment, with economic pressures also influencing voter sentiment.
The Bottom Line
The relationship between Senate Majority Leader Thune and House Minority Leader Jeffries would define the latter half of President Trump’s term if Democrats flip the House. Thune’s strategy hinges on mobilizing Republican voters in the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election to prevent a divided government, which he acknowledges would create a different incentive structure for passing legislation. The election will determine whether the Republican trifecta in Washington, D.C., established in 2024, remains intact or gives way to divided control, significantly impacting the confirmation of nominees and the passage of future policy priorities.