Arab American voters who helped deliver Michigan to President Donald Trump in 2024 are shifting support to Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that the Republican Party has abandoned its 'America First' platform. The realignment centers on concerns that the administration has failed to prioritize domestic spending over foreign wars, a sentiment particularly prevalent in Dearborn, a majority-Arab American city that Trump won by six points in the previous election.
This shift complicates the re-election bid of Republican incumbent Mike Rogers, who has relied on maintaining Trump's gains among this demographic. While two-thirds of Arab American Trump voters still approve of the president's overall performance, specific policy disagreements regarding Israel and Gaza have driven a segment of the base toward El-Sayed, a former public health official and the son of Egyptian immigrants.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican incumbent Mike Rogers and his campaign maintain that they welcome Michiganders regardless of faith or background, rejecting the notion that they are alienating Arab American voters. Campaign spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet accused El-Sayed of fueling antisemitism and sympathizing with the synagogue attacker, citing his initial response to the March violence at Temple Israel.
Former Michigan Republican Party vice chair Hassan Nehme, who led outreach to Arab American voters during the 2024 cycle, acknowledged a loss of traction for the GOP in the region. "Once the administration got into the White House, everything we were told kind of flip-flopped," Nehme stated. "We lost all traction. Republicans are kind of dead in the water in the area right now."
Rogers has challenged El-Sayed's judgment, pointing to the Democrat's appearances with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and his handling of the synagogue attack narrative. Rogers, a staunch supporter of Israel, is positioned by his supporters as the candidate who understands the importance of the U.S.-Israel alliance, a view that contrasts with the isolationist tendencies of some former Trump voters in the community.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is framing his campaign around economic nationalism and anti-establishment themes that resonate with former Trump supporters. El-Sayed has criticized politicians who accept support from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, a stance that has appealed to voters like Mustapha El-Jaroudi, a 27-year-old two-time Trump voter. "I might not agree with everything El-Sayed says, but at least he’s not being bribed," El-Jaroudi said, referring to El-Sayed's criticism of AIPAC.
Supporters argue that El-Sayed better represents their interpretation of 'America First,' which they define as keeping taxpayer money within the United States rather than sending it abroad. Walid Fidama, a 62-year-old Yemeni American who voted for Trump, stated, "I don’t see peace anywhere. He made it worse. We have started a war. For why?" Fidama cited continued conflict abroad and rising household expenses as reasons for his disillusionment with the current administration.
El-Sayed’s campaign has countered Republican attacks by asserting that incumbent Mike Rogers is using personal attacks to distract from his record and ties to corporate donors. The campaign emphasizes El-Sayed's condemnation of antisemitism following the March attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield Township, noting that he apologized for earlier remarks described as "hurt people hurt people" and "violence is a cycle."
What the Numbers Show
A Washington Post-Schar School poll of Arab American registered voters nationwide, conducted in August and September and released this month, found that 58% favor Democrats for Congress, compared with 34% who prefer Republicans. This represents a significant shift from the 2024 presidential election, where the community split its votes between Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite the shift toward Democrats for Congress, two-thirds of Arab American Trump voters still approve of President Trump's overall performance. However, 54% disapprove of his handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, according to the Washington Post data.
In the Michigan Senate race, a Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey conducted October 19–22 found El-Sayed leading Rogers, 51.4% to 45.1%, among likely voters. Michigan has nearly 400,000 residents of Arab ancestry, making this demographic a critical constituency in the state's political landscape.
The Bottom Line
The erosion of Republican support among Arab Americans in Michigan suggests that the 'America First' coalition is fracturing along lines of foreign policy and domestic spending priorities. While the Republican brand retains strength among these voters in terms of presidential approval, the specific policies of the Trump administration regarding Israel and Gaza have created an opening for Democratic candidates who can align their platform with the voters' economic and isolationist expectations.
The outcome of the Senate race between El-Sayed and Rogers will serve as a test of whether 'America First' rhetoric can be separated from traditional Republican foreign policy stances. Voters like Fidama and El-Jaroudi indicate that for a subset of the base, the definition of American interests has narrowed to domestic fiscal control and reduced overseas engagement, regardless of party label.