Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico holds polling leads wider than those recorded for Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz in 2018, according to campaign data and analysis cited by Fox News Digital. The race between Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has intensified with just days remaining before the November 3 election. Talarico’s campaign has raised more than $146 million since its launch, while Republican outside groups have invested heavily to support Paxton.
What the Right Is Saying
Republicans, including President Trump, have rallied behind Paxton, with Trump campaigning alongside the Attorney General in Lubbock on the same night as Talarico’s event. Trump adjusted his rally schedule to overlap with Talarico’s, signaling the urgency of defending the seat. MAGA Inc., Trump’s principal super PAC, has spent $33.7 million on advertisements supporting Paxton, according to AdImpact.
Paxton backers express confidence that Texas will remain Republican, despite the tight polling. Jenny, a voter from Brownsville, stated outside the Trump-Paxton rally that the race is "not close" and predicted that "Paxton will wipe the floor" with Talarico. Other supporters argued that Talarico’s large crowds in red towns did not reflect the broader statewide sentiment.
Some Paxton supporters acknowledged the divisions within the Republican primary, where sitting Sen. John Cornyn was ousted in favor of Paxton, but maintained that the party would unite in the general election. Elias, a nurse from Lubbock who attended a Paxton event, criticized Talarico by contrasting his lack of an indictment with Paxton’s legal controversies, though other conservative voters emphasized that Paxton’s experience as Attorney General outweighed past issues.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats view the race as a rare opportunity to flip a traditionally Republican seat, with Talarico framing the contest as a fight against powerful interests. At a rally in Dallas, Talarico told supporters, "David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath. He didn’t have as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith and he had a slingshot. Dallas, you are my slingshot. The people of Texas are my slingshot."
The campaign has embraced the nickname "Talafreako," originally used pejoratively by Republicans and President Donald Trump. Talarico’s momentum was highlighted by a larger-than-expected crowd in Lubbock, a deep-red city, where more than 4,000 people signed up for an event that required a move to a larger venue. "I know that we’re not the only show in town tonight, and I appreciate all 4,000 of you that showed up here this evening," Talarico said on Oct. 27.
Supporters at these rallies cited Paxton’s legal history and impeachment by the Texas House as reasons for their support of Talarico. Lori, a Dallas voter who has previously voted Republican, stated, "We’re here in support of honesty, decency and integrity. That’s what we like to see in a candidate, and we think Talarico is all that in one." George, a lifelong Texan, described Talarico as "a breath of fresh air" after years of watching state politics he found "heartbreaking."
What the Numbers Show
Campaign finance data indicates a significant disparity in direct fundraising between the two candidates. From July through September, Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million, more than three times the $18 million raised by Paxton’s campaign during the same period. Talarico’s total fundraising since launching his campaign exceeds $146 million.
However, Republican outside groups have poured more than $200 million into the race to support Paxton, with nearly all of that spending bankrolled by Elon Musk. In addition to Musk’s contributions, MAGA Inc. has spent $33.7 million on ads backing Paxton, according to AdImpact.
Polling metrics cited by Fox News Digital suggest Talarico’s leads are wider than those recorded for Beto O’Rourke in 2018, the closest a Democrat has come to winning a Texas Senate seat in decades. The race features dueling rallies in deep-red areas like Lubbock, where Talarico’s campaign reported over 4,000 registrants for an event that outgrew its initial venue.
The Bottom Line
The Texas Senate race represents a critical test of the "red wall" in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012. A victory for Talarico would mark a historic shift in Texas politics and potentially impact the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. With Election Day on Nov. 3, the outcome will depend on whether Talarico can convert his fundraising advantage and polling momentum into votes in rural and suburban areas.
The race has also highlighted divisions within the Republican Party, particularly following the primary contest where Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The involvement of President Trump and billionaire Elon Musk underscores the high stakes Republicans attach to retaining the seat. Voters will decide whether to maintain the current Republican representation or elect Talarico, who has positioned himself as a candidate focused on integrity and hope.