NBC News projects that Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has won re-election in Arizona, defeating Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. The victory marks a significant hold for Democrats in a key battleground state that Donald Trump won by 5 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Results are based on current projections and may change as votes are finalized.
Hobbs, who previously served as the state secretary of state, ran as a moderate, emphasizing border security, tax cuts, and bipartisan cooperation. She selected John Giles, a former Republican and former mayor of Mesa, as her running mate. Her campaign highlighted her record of signing more than 900 pieces of bipartisan legislation and enacted a three-year pause on tax incentives for data centers. Hobbs also distanced herself from President Trump’s policies, specifically citing the unpopular Iran war and tariffs.
What the Right Is Saying
Rep. Andy Biggs, a former chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, focused his campaign on Hobbs’ executive actions, specifically highlighting the record number of vetoes she signed during her four years as governor. Biggs argued that Hobbs did not collaborate effectively with the state legislature. “She doesn’t give in on anything, pretty much,” Biggs told Fox News in October. “I’d be working with the Legislature, not against them.” Biggs criticized Hobbs for refusing to debate, viewing it as an avoidance of accountability. When pressed about Hobbs’ 2022 victory, Biggs stated that “every court has said she’s won” and that “she’s the governor.” Regarding the current election, Biggs affirmed his willingness to accept the results, saying, “Yeah, I will. I will accept the outcome.” He added, “I think that there’s been so much improvement, and there will continue to be improvement, that I’m happy to certify the outcome of this election.” President Trump initially backed businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson but gave Biggs his “complete and total endorsement” after Taylor Robson dropped out.
What the Left Is Saying
Hobbs framed her campaign around protecting freedoms and putting Arizona first, stating in a video announcing Giles as her pick for lieutenant governor, “Whether you’re a Democrat, independent or Republican, if you believe in protecting our freedoms and putting Arizona first, we’re ready to fight for you.” Her team touted her ability to work across the aisle, pointing to the high volume of bipartisan legislation signed during her tenure. Hobbs criticized Biggs for his support of Trump’s tariffs, his votes against resolutions to end the Iran war, and his refusal to acknowledge Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election. In a July radio appearance, she stated, “Andy Biggs won’t admit that I won in ’22 or that Trump lost in 2020, and I think that it is dangerous and wrong. Arizonans have paid the cost of this election denial for a long time, and we will continue to if Andy Biggs is in the governor’s chair.” Hobbs declined to debate Biggs, describing the format as “political theater.”
What the Numbers Show
Donald Trump won Arizona by 5 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, indicating a Republican lean in the state’s top-of-ticket voting. In the 2022 governor’s race, Hobbs defeated Trump ally Kari Lake by approximately 17,000 votes. Hobbs’ campaign reported signing more than 900 pieces of bipartisan legislation. Biggs’ campaign emphasized the number of vetoes issued by Hobbs, though specific totals were not detailed in the source material. Hobbs implemented a three-year pause on tax incentives for data centers during her term. The NBC News projection indicates a Democratic hold on the governor’s office despite the state’s recent presidential vote margin.
The Bottom Line
Hobbs’ projected victory demonstrates the durability of moderate Democratic branding in Arizona, even in a state that voted Republican in the previous presidential cycle. Her strategy of highlighting bipartisan legislative output and distancing herself from national partisan conflicts appears to have resonated with voters. The election results are projections by NBC News and may shift as final counts are completed. Future attention will turn to how Hobbs’ second term interacts with the Trump administration on issues such as border policy, trade tariffs, and the ongoing situation in Iran.