Abdul El-Sayed, who is set to become the first Muslim member of the U.S. Senate, ran significantly behind other top Democratic candidates in Michigan precincts with large Jewish populations, according to a POLITICO analysis of precinct-level results. While El-Sayed performed well statewide, his margin over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers was notably lower in communities like Huntington Woods and West Bloomfield compared to his running mate, Gov.-elect Jocelyn Benson.
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative critics and some Jewish Democratic leaders utilized El-Sayed’s underperformance among Jewish voters as evidence of a disconnect with a traditionally reliable voting bloc. Rep. Haley Stevens, El-Sayed’s former primary rival, switched her endorsement to Republican Mike Rogers days before the general election, citing concerns over antisemitism and the rhetoric surrounding Israel. Stevens pointed to an advertisement produced by an El-Sayed supporter that linked high grocery prices to U.S. aid to Israel, a message El-Sayed and his campaign distanced themselves from.
Lansing Mayor Andy Schor, a Jewish Democrat who supported Stevens in the primary, expressed no surprise at the split in voting patterns. While Schor noted he hopes for continued dialogue, he stated, "Everybody has to keep talking to him. His views aren’t going to change, and we know what they are." Nonnegotiable Michigan, a group of Jewish activists, also continued to press El-Sayed on issues of Jewish safety and Israel following the election.
What the Left Is Saying
El-Sayed acknowledged the divergence in support, stating that his position on U.S. military aid to Israel was a primary point of disagreement with Jewish voters. "I'm not going to change my position, but …I intend to lead on all the issues that we agree on — whether it's the right to a union or the right to health care, clean air, clean water, or religious pluralism, and respect for the Constitution — and I hope that over time I can earn [their] support on those issues," El-Sayed said. He argued that his statewide victory indicates broader voter alignment with his stance on holding Israel accountable for war crimes and prioritizing domestic spending.
Progressive groups and El-Sayed’s campaign highlighted that he faced significant financial disadvantages, citing an outside analysis that he was outspent by "MAGA billionaires, AIPAC, Elon Musk, and corporate interests." El-Sayed’s supporters point to his strong performance in areas with high Muslim populations, such as Dearborn, where he won 82.5% of the vote, suggesting that his coalition is shifting rather than shrinking.
What the Numbers Show
Statewide, El-Sayed received 52.5% of the vote, trailing Gov.-elect Benson’s 54.5% by two points. However, the gap widened substantially in heavily Jewish areas: in Huntington Woods, where approximately two-thirds of residents are Jewish, El-Sayed received 65.3% compared to Benson’s 80%, a nearly 15-point difference. In West Bloomfield, where roughly a quarter of residents are Jewish, El-Sayed trailed Benson by 8.8 points.
Jewish voters constitute roughly 1.4% of the Michigan electorate. A poll of Jewish early voters indicated that while a majority still supported El-Sayed, approximately one in four who had backed Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 switched their support to Republican Mike Rogers. Conversely, El-Sayed’s performance in Dearborn, which has a large Muslim population, improved significantly from previous cycles; Slotkin had won 41.4% there in 2024, while former Vice President Kamala Harris received 36.3%.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 Michigan Senate race illustrates a growing fracture within the Democratic coalition regarding U.S. policy toward Israel, with traditional voting blocs realigning based on foreign policy stances. El-Sayed’s win marks a historic milestone for Muslim representation in the Senate, but his path forward will involve navigating significant skepticism from Jewish constituents and leaders. With Michigan entering its early primary window for the 2028 presidential election, the performance of candidates on Israel-related issues is expected to remain a central litmus test for the party.
Key metrics to watch include whether El-Sayed can narrow the gap with Jewish voters in future statewide elections and how national Democratic leaders adjust their messaging on Israel in response to the shifting dynamics revealed in precinct-level data. The divergence between El-Sayed’s support among Muslim voters and his underperformance among Jewish voters may influence candidate recruitment and policy platforms in upcoming cycles.