Democrats’ recent midterm gains have created a viable legislative pathway to activate the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact before the 2028 presidential election. By securing control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, the party has positioned itself to add 50 electoral votes to the compact, pushing the total pledged to 272—two more than the 270 required for the agreement to take effect. Arizona could further increase the total to 283 if Democrats gain control of both chambers there.
The compact, already enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C., pledges each participating state’s electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. While the Electoral College would remain formally in place, the compact would effectively make the national vote tally decisive in presidential elections. The National Popular Vote organization, which authored the compact, states it has identified multiple legislative sponsors in each of the five targeted states and expects bills to be introduced early in the 2027 legislative sessions.
What the Left Is Saying
Proponents of the compact argue that the current system distorts democratic representation by focusing campaigns on a handful of swing states while ignoring voters in solidly Democratic or Republican states. Patrick Rosenstiel, a senior consultant for the National Popular Vote organization, emphasized the broad public support for the change. "I am confident we have multiple paths to secure the 48 electoral votes required to deliver what 63-percent of Americans want," Rosenstiel stated. Supporters contend that the compact would give every vote equal weight by counting all ballots toward a single national total.
Rosenstiel rejected legal challenges claiming the compact improperly alters the Constitution, arguing that states hold the authority to determine how their presidential electors are appointed. "Any clean read of Article II, Section 1 makes it clear that states have the exclusive power to award electors," he said. "The only credible legal question is whether this compact requires congressional consent."
What the Right Is Saying
Conservative legal experts and commentators argue that the compact represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional workaround to amend the Constitution without the required ratification process. Hans von Spakovsky, an election law expert with the conservative group Advancing American Freedom and a former commissioner on the Federal Election Commission, stated that the compact cannot bypass the constitutional amendment process. "They can’t use a compact to, in essence, change the Electoral College," von Spakovsky said.
Von Spakovsky characterized the compact as a partisan maneuver, noting its exclusive support from Democratic-led states. "Given that the NPV is entirely a creation of Democrats and only supported by Democrats, the new Congress will no doubt easily pass this compact," he stated. He argued that non-participating states would have a strong basis for litigation, claiming the compact damages the federal system provided by the Constitution. "In the past, the only kind of compacts that have been agreed on between states have been things like water sharing... But a compact that changes a fundamental structural given in the Constitution, I think the Supreme Court would say you can’t do that," von Spakovsky continued.
What the Numbers Show
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact currently has 222 electoral votes pledged by 18 states and Washington, D.C. The threshold for activation is 270 electoral votes. The four states recently brought under Democratic trifecta control—Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6)—account for 50 electoral votes. If these states enact the compact, the total pledged would rise to 272. Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, could push the total to 283 if Democrats gain control of both legislative chambers there.
For the compact to apply to the 2028 election, states representing at least 270 electoral votes must join before July 20, 2028. This timeline leaves less than two years for state legislatures to pass the necessary laws, for Congress to potentially approve the compact under the Compact Clause, and for the Supreme Court to resolve any resulting constitutional challenges. The Electoral College currently awards electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in 48 states, with Maine and Nebraska using a congressional district method.
The Bottom Line
The activation of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact now hinges on legislative action in the 2027 sessions and subsequent legal battles over the Compact Clause and Article II of the Constitution. While proponents view the shift as a necessary step toward equal voting power, opponents predict a Supreme Court challenge that could nullify the compact before it impacts the 2028 election. The coming months will determine whether the compact remains a theoretical framework or becomes a decisive factor in American presidential politics.