Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy described the state's ranked-choice voting system as "very confusing" as the U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan remains effectively frozen.
With Election Day having passed on November 3, the contest is separated by fewer than 700 votes, and officials have not released new tallies in several days.
Speaking on WABC Radio's "The Cats Roundtable" on Sunday, Dunleavy warned that the outcome might not be determined for days or even weeks. He noted that significant batches of ballots are expected to be counted on Friday, November 13, and Wednesday, November 18. "It's a slow system up here in Alaska," Dunleavy stated, acknowledging that the delay in results is creating uncertainty for voters.
What the Right Is Saying
Governor Dunleavy, a Republican, expressed frustration with the pace of the count and the complexity of the voting method. He denounced what he termed the "Decoy Dan" scheme, referring to Daniel J. Sullivan, a candidate who appeared on the ballot allegedly to siphon votes from the incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. Dunleavy stated that the Alaska Division of Elections initially found this candidacy illegitimate, but the state Supreme Court ruled that the candidate had to be placed on the ballot. The Governor noted that a New York Times report linking potential knowledge of this plot to the Peltola campaign prompted a reopening of investigations into possible wrongdoing.
What the Left Is Saying
Democrats are framing the ongoing 'Decoy Dan' investigation as a Republican attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the election result and cast doubt on Mary Peltola’s narrow lead. Party leaders argue that the scrutiny is a political maneuver rather than a genuine legal concern, pointing to the fact that the state Supreme Court already ruled the candidate could appear on the ballot.
Furthermore, supporters of the ranked-choice system emphasize that the method ensures majority support and reflects voter intent more accurately than plurality voting. They note that voters narrowly rejected a measure to repeal this voting scheme, with "No" votes leading at 51.85%, suggesting that despite the confusion, a majority of voters who participated in the repeal measure prefer to keep the current system in place.
What the Numbers Show
As of the latest available data, Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 637 votes. The race remains below the 50% threshold required to avoid ranked-choice rounds, which are scheduled to begin if no majority winner is declared by November 25. The measure to repeal ranked-choice voting is too close to call, with "No" votes holding a 1.7-point advantage. Key dates for additional vote counts are November 13 and November 18. The investigation into the "Decoy Dan" candidacy involves both the Alaska Division of Elections and the U.S. Department of Justice.
The Bottom Line
The Alaska Senate race remains in limbo due to the slow processing of mail-in ballots and the complexities of the ranked-choice voting system. The outcome may hinge on the upcoming vote dumps in mid-November. If neither candidate achieves a majority by November 25, the results will be determined through rounds of ranked-choice voting, a process that could take weeks to finalize. Meanwhile, the ongoing investigation into the "Decoy Dan" candidacy adds a layer of legal uncertainty to the electoral outcome.