A new analysis by the conservative AI safety group Humans First indicates that deep-red counties hosting large data centers or proposed projects shifted further toward Democrats in the recent midterm elections compared to similar counties without such infrastructure. The study, obtained by Fox News Digital, examined election returns and project records in 1,540 counties across 16 states to measure what the organization describes as a "data center penalty."
The analysis found that across all examined counties, those hosting large data centers shifted an additional 2.2 percentage points toward Democrats compared with non-host counties in the same states. This pattern appeared in 14 of the 16 states and 25 of the 27 governor and Senate races reviewed. When restricted to counties President Donald Trump won by at least 20 points in 2024, the raw gap between host and non-host counties was 2.1 percentage points.
What the Right Is Saying
Humans First, a conservative organization, argues that the shift away from Republicans in data center counties is a result of the party’s failure to address local concerns about property rights and economic impact. Kremer stated that people engage politically when issues affect them personally, citing concerns about electricity costs, water usage, and health.
"Whether you’re talking about AI technology or the infrastructure needed to build AI data centers, the American people have not had a seat at the table," Kremer said. She argued that developers often use nondisclosure agreements and shell companies, leaving communities unaware of projects until it is too late to stop them.
The group launched a "Data Center Revolt" bus tour in September, making 35 stops in 27 states. Nine of those stops were in deep-red counties hosting large projects. Kremer asserted that these counties shifted 2.2 points further toward Democrats after accounting for controls, compared with a 0.75-point shift among deep-red host counties overall.
What the Left Is Saying
While the analysis was conducted by a conservative group, the findings align with progressive arguments that rapid, unregulated technology infrastructure imposes costs on local communities without democratic input. The data suggests that rural voters, often a core Republican constituency, are reacting to local impacts of tech expansion.
The report highlights that voters rejected or restricted data center development in 46 of 47 local ballot measures in 2026, according to Ballotpedia. These measures included restrictions on development and advisory questions, indicating a broad local skepticism toward projects that critics argue strain resources like electricity and water while offering tax abatements to large corporations.
Amy Kremer, Chairwoman of Humans First, emphasized the personal nature of the issue, noting that the buildout affects quality of life and household finances. Although Kremer is a conservative figure, her framing of the issue as one of local control and economic fairness resonates with progressive critiques of corporate influence in community planning.
What the Numbers Show
The Humans First analysis identified 114 proposed large data center projects across 92 deep-red counties. In deep-red counties with projects still in the proposal stage, the gap between host and non-host counties was 1.1 percentage points after accounting for past voting patterns, rural or urban status, population size, racial and ethnic makeup, and recent voting trends.
The memo found that Republican vote totals fell an additional 1.1% in deep-red host counties compared with comparable counties without large data centers, while Democratic vote totals showed no significant change. This suggests the shift was driven by Republican turnout or defection rather than a surge in Democratic support.
The Energy Department estimates that data centers used 4.7% of U.S. electricity in 2024, a figure that has fueled debates over grid infrastructure costs. The analysis cautioned that its findings show an association rather than proof that data centers caused voters to change their behavior.
The Bottom Line
The data indicates a potential vulnerability for the Republican Party in rural areas undergoing rapid technological infrastructure changes. While the analysis is correlative, the consistent pattern across 14 states suggests that local opposition to data centers is impacting electoral outcomes in traditionally conservative regions.
The findings highlight a growing tension between national tech expansion goals and local community interests. With 114 proposed projects in deep-red counties, future elections may see continued friction if these local concerns regarding property rights, utility costs, and transparency are not addressed by policymakers.
It remains unclear whether the Humans First bus tour influenced voting behavior or if the counties already had strong opposition to development. The group’s next steps involve monitoring the 114 proposed projects to see if similar electoral shifts occur in upcoming cycles.