House and Senate Republicans are scheduled to select their leadership teams for the incoming Congress on Tuesday, following significant losses in the recent midterm elections. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has announced he will step down from leadership and not seek the position of minority leader, triggering a competitive race within the House GOP conference. In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is running for minority leader unopposed, though some senators have requested a delay in the vote to allow for a broader discussion on the party's future direction.
The elections take place after President Donald Trump's administration faced a challenging midterm cycle, resulting in a shift in congressional power. House Democrats are projected to secure 259 seats, giving them a comfortable majority. As Republicans regroup, the focus has turned to internal party dynamics and the selection of leaders who will define the GOP's strategy in the minority.
What the Left Is Saying
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., are favored to assume the roles of House Speaker and Senate Majority Leader, respectively. Jeffries has expressed confidence in securing the 218 votes needed to become speaker, noting that his team is working to achieve that number and beyond. With a projected 259-seat majority, Jeffries can afford approximately 40 defections and still win the gavel.
Some Democratic members are using the leadership selection process to push for more aggressive policy agendas. Rep.-elect Adam Hamawy, D-N.J., stated that progressives are not withholding votes but are undecided, seeking conversations about the plan going forward. Senate Democrats will elect their leadership team in early December, while House Democrats are scheduled to pick their team next week. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., has indicated he is in 'active listening mode' regarding a potential challenge to Schumer for majority leader, reflecting a grassroots push for alternative leadership.
What the Right Is Saying
In the House, the race for minority leader has narrowed to two candidates: Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. Scalise, a Trump ally, has pitched himself as a unifier of House Republican factions against incoming Democratic leadership. Jordan, also a Trump ally and former Oversight Committee chairman, argued he is best positioned to combat Democratic investigations, stating he is 'battle-tested on the oversight front and I know the Democrats’ playbook.'
The contest for minority whip features Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., facing a challenge from August Pfluger, R-Texas, the chairman of the Republican Study Committee. Additionally, House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain, R-Mich., is facing challenges from Erin Houchin, R-Ind., and Greg Steube, R-Fla. Steube criticized the current leadership for choosing 'accommodation over conviction.' One anonymous House GOP lawmaker backing Jordan described the moment as a need for a 'pivot' and stated, 'Everything is on the table' following the election results.
In the Senate, while Thune faces no official opposition, a group of Republicans led by Budget Committee Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., requested a delay in the leadership elections. Sen. David McCormick, R-Pa., argued that the party needs more time to process the election results, stating, 'We need a discussion about what went wrong, how we fix it, what we stand for, and how our agenda must focus on the concerns of the American people.' McCormick added, 'We need leadership in place fast, but Tuesday is too soon.'
What the Numbers Show
House Democrats are projected to hold 259 seats, while Republicans hold the remaining seats in the chamber. To be elected House Speaker, a candidate needs 218 votes. Jeffries' projected majority allows for roughly 40 defections from within his own caucus before he risks losing the speakership.
In the House GOP leadership races, candidates require a majority of the Republican conference to win their respective positions. The elections are conducted by secret ballot behind closed doors. In the Senate, Thune, Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., and Conference Chair Tom Cotton, R-Ark., are expected to win their races for minority leader, whip, and conference chair, respectively, barring any last-minute changes in the secret ballot vote.
The House Republican conference currently includes members who ran unsuccessfully for speaker in 2023, including Scalise and Jordan. The Republican Study Committee, which Pfluger chairs, is described as the largest caucus of conservatives on Capitol Hill.
The Bottom Line
The outcome of these leadership elections will determine the GOP's legislative strategy and internal cohesion as they enter the minority in both chambers. The House race between Scalise and Jordan represents a contest over the party's tone and approach to oversight and unity. In the Senate, the push to delay elections signals an ongoing internal debate about the causes of the midterm losses and the path forward. House Democrats' large projected majority provides stability for Jeffries, though progressive pressure may influence the party's legislative priorities in the new Congress.