The midterm elections have shifted control of several state governments to the Democratic Party, bringing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) closer to the threshold needed to effectively bypass the current Electoral College system. The compact, which aims to award each member state's electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, currently accounts for 222 electoral votes. To take effect, it requires 270 votes, the number needed to win the presidency.
In recent elections, Democrats secured full control of the government in six states representing 71 electoral votes: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If these states join the existing 18 Democratic-run states in the compact, the total would exceed the 270-vote requirement. However, the path forward involves political uncertainty and likely legal challenges, as not all newly elected Democratic officials have committed to joining the compact, and conservative groups argue the plan faces constitutional hurdles.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican officials and conservative legal experts argue that the compact undermines the constitutional role of states in presidential elections. Tyler August, the Republican leader in the Wisconsin Assembly, stated in a Tuesday announcement that the Constitution gives states a voice in choosing the president for a reason. "This would undermine that balance and disenfranchise Wisconsin voters by letting results in other states override their choice," August said.
The America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think tank, has prepared legal arguments against the plan. In a September analysis, its analysts wrote that the compact "disenfranchises voters in member states if enacted, violates the United States Constitution, and undermines America's Founders' intent."
Legal scholars skeptical of the plan point to potential constitutional conflicts. Derek Muller, a Notre Dame law professor, noted that while states have the power to run elections, they may not have the authority to set rules that determine outcomes in other states' contests. Muller flagged concerns about the 14th Amendment's equal protection clause, noting that differing ballot access rules across states could dilute votes unevenly. He also suggested the Supreme Court might rule that states cannot join a compact to alter a core constitutional duty without congressional approval.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic leaders in newly controlled states have expressed varying degrees of support for the initiative. Wisconsin’s new Democratic Governor, David Crowley, stated, "We can do away with it," referring to the Electoral College, and noted he is "interested in having those conversations with the state Legislature." This marks the first time in 16 years that Wisconsin has had a Democratic legislature under a Democratic governor.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, said he would like his newly Democratic legislature to take steps toward making the Electoral College obsolete. "I think that the national popular vote makes sense. My views on that have not changed," Shapiro said on a liberal podcast. He added that he would work with lawmakers to determine the "right mechanism" for moving forward.
Supporters argue that the current system renders votes in many states irrelevant. Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist in Minnesota who serves as a senior consultant to the popular vote movement, noted that his vote is "essentially meaningless" because Minnesota reliably votes Democratic. "National popular vote forces campaigns to focus on every persuadable voter in every precinct across the nation," Rosenstiel said. The campaign has reportedly lined up legislative sponsors for when the new state legislatures convene.
What the Numbers Show
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact currently includes 15 states and the District of Columbia, totaling 196 electoral votes. However, the source text notes that states that have joined account for 222 Electoral College votes, implying additional states have joined since the last major update or including recent legislative actions. The compact activates only when states with 270 electoral votes have joined.
The six states that recently flipped to full Democratic control represent 71 electoral votes. Adding these to the existing 222 would bring the total to 293, exceeding the 270 threshold. However, Minnesota already accounts for 10 of those votes within the existing 222, having joined the compact in 2023. The remaining five states—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—would need to join to push the total over 270.
Historical context shows the issue gained traction after Republican George W. Bush won the 2000 election despite losing the popular vote, and again after Donald Trump won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. The Supreme Court ruled in *Chiafalo v. Washington* (2020) that states can require electors to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged, a precedent that supporters of the compact cite as favorable, while skeptics argue it does not address the specific interstate compact clause.
The Bottom Line
The shift in state government control has moved the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact from a symbolic gesture to a plausible legislative reality. If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin join, the compact needs Michigan and either Arizona or Nevada to reach the 270-vote threshold. However, key governors remain noncommittal. Michigan Governor-elect Jocelyn Benson’s office declined to comment, and Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs stated her focus is on cost-of-living issues rather than election reform.
Nevada presents a historical cautionary tale for proponents. In 2019, then-Governor Steve Sisolak vetoed a compact bill, arguing it would diminish the influence of smaller states. Although the Nevada legislature passed another measure in 2023, it stalled under the previous Republican governor. The incoming Democratic administration in Nevada has indicated that election reform is not an immediate priority.
Even if states join, the plan faces significant legal obstacles. Conservative groups are prepared to challenge the compact in court, potentially bringing the issue before the Supreme Court. Legal experts warn that constitutional questions regarding the Equal Protection Clause and the Compact Clause could delay or block implementation. The coming months will reveal whether newly elected Democratic officials prioritize this reform or focus on other legislative agendas.