Democratic challenger Mary Peltola is on track to win Alaska's U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, according to an NBC News Decision Desk analysis released this week. The analysis indicates that Peltola is likely to secure the seat under either scenario: by achieving an outright majority of first-choice votes or through the state's ranked choice voting process if no candidate clears the 50% threshold.
What the Left Is Saying
Peltola currently leads Sullivan by 3.7 percentage points, a margin of just over 10,000 votes, with 96% of the expected vote counted. To win outright without going to ranked choice tabulation, Peltola needs to capture 53.8% of the remaining ballots. Recent reporting trends support this possibility, as Peltola received 58% of newly reported votes on Friday night.
Democratic strategists note that the incumbent's path to victory is narrowing significantly. For Sullivan to tie Peltola in first-choice rankings, he would need to win approximately 92% of the remaining 12,000 votes. This would require a performance 46 percentage points better than his current average, a feat not seen in any batch of ballots processed so far. In the most recent update, Sullivan received only 38% of the newly counted votes.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican officials point to the ongoing vote count and the potential for ranked choice tabulation as the decisive factor in the race. Sullivan has two theoretical paths to victory: making up the deficit in first-choice rankings or gaining ground through the redistribution of votes in the ranked choice process.
However, the NBC News analysis suggests the second path is effectively closed. While Sullivan gains some votes from supporters of third-place Republican candidate Gerald Heikes, the overall math works against him. To close the 10,000-vote gap via ranked choice, Sullivan would need to win approximately 93% of all redistributed ballots from third-party candidates.
The analysis highlights that even this high requirement is optimistic because a significant portion of ballots are expected to be 'exhausted.' Over 45% of voters who ranked Heikes, Sullivan, or write-in candidates did not rank either Peltola or Sullivan as a later choice. These ballots are excluded from the final count in the ranked choice tabulation.
What the Numbers Show
The Alaska Division of Elections has published 'Cast Vote Records' for over 270,000 tabulated ballots, detailing how each voter ranked the candidates. This data reveals that only about 6,600 ballots are projected to be redistributed to the top two finishers if current rates are maintained.
With approximately 11,300 tallied ballots currently showing first-choice votes for candidates other than Peltola and Sullivan, and an estimated 12,000 total once all votes are in, the pool of transferable votes is limited. If Sullivan remains more than 6,600 votes behind Peltola after all first-choice ballots are counted, it becomes mathematically impossible for him to catch up in the ranked choice tabulation.
The state's deadline for final mail absentee ballots is Wednesday, Nov. 18. This is also the day the Alaska Division of Elections will run the ranked choice tabulation if necessary. NBC News expects to receive the remainder of the votes early next week, with a final result potentially known by Nov. 18.
The Bottom Line
The race remains technically unresolved until the Alaska Division of Elections completes the final tabulation and, if needed, the ranked choice process. NBC News projects that Peltola is likely to win, but the Decision Desk will continue to assess incoming ballots to determine if the race can be officially called based on first-choice votes or if the ranked choice outcome will be the deciding factor.
This analysis underscores the impact of Alaska's ranked choice voting system, particularly how ballot exhaustion among third-party supporters can insulate a candidate who holds a lead in first-choice preferences. The final outcome will hinge on the remaining 4% of the vote and the specific ranking patterns of those late-reported ballots.