City Councilmember Janeese Lewis-George, a Democratic socialist representing Ward 4 on the D.C. Council for six years, holds a double-digit lead over former City Council Member at-Large Kenyan McDuffie in the race to succeed outgoing Mayor Muriel Bowser, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Monday.
The survey of 836 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted May 27 through June 1, shows Lewis-George with 36 percent support compared to McDuffie's 25 percent. Both candidates are lawyers by trade, native Washingtonians, and graduates of Howard University with deep community ties in the district.
Bowser announced she would not seek re-election after several public confrontations with President Trump. The incumbent has not endorsed any candidate in the crowded field, which also includes Vincent B. Orange, Gary Goodweather, Rini Sampath, Ernest Johnson, and Hope Solomon. The poll found that less than 5 percent of likely voters ranked any of these five as their top choice for mayor.
What the Right Is Saying
Moderate Democrats and some independents point to McDuffie's strength on issues of public safety and his relationship with the White House as pathways to victory. The poll shows McDuffie leading Lewis-George by 8 percentage points on crime and public safety, an issue that has gained prominence under the second Trump administration.
Conservative-leaning Democrats argue that Lewis-George's democratic socialist label could alienate moderate voters in a general election. They note McDuffie's modest lead on handling the city's economy (a 1-point advantage) and his stronger position on D.C.-White House relations (a 9-point edge) as indicators of electability beyond the Democratic primary.
Critics of Lewis-George's platform have raised concerns about her positions on policing and fiscal policy. McDuffie has positioned himself as a candidate who can work constructively with federal authorities, an approach his supporters say is essential given ongoing tensions between the district and the Trump administration.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive supporters point to Lewis-George's platform addressing affordability concerns as a key driver of her lead. Her positions on housing affordability (44 percent voter support), cost of living (41 percent), and public schools (40 percent) significantly outpace McDuffie in the poll.
Progressive advocacy groups have rallied behind Lewis-George, emphasizing her six years of council experience and her focus on bread-and-butter kitchen-table issues affecting working-class Washingtonians. Supporters argue her democratic socialist platform resonates with residents grappling with rising costs in the nation's capital.
The poll also shows Lewis-George holding a 20-point advantage over McDuffie on the trait of "honesty," which progressive commentators have highlighted as evidence of her authenticity with voters. Her campaign has centered on expanding affordable housing and addressing income inequality in a city that has seen rapid gentrification.
What the Numbers Show
The Washington Post-Schar School poll provides detailed granular data on voter preferences across key issues. Lewis-George's strongest margin over McDuffie comes on housing affordability: 44 percent to 29 percent, a 15-point differential. On cost of living, she leads 41 percent to 29 percent.
McDuffie's best issue performance is on crime and public safety, where he holds 34 percent support compared to Lewis-George's 26 percent. He also leads on the D.C.-White House relationship question (27 percent to 18 percent) and on handling the city's economy (19 percent to 18 percent).
On personal traits, voters perceive the candidates differently: Lewis-George holds a commanding 20-point lead on "honesty" while McDuffie has a 9-point advantage on "experience." The poll of 836 likely Democratic primary voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The Bottom Line
Washingtonians are scheduled to cast ballots in next week's Democratic mayoral primary, which will mark the first implementation of ranked choice voting in the district's history. With Lewis-George holding 11 points over McDuffie among a field where five other candidates collectively trail below 5 percent, the race appears to be a two-person contest.
The outcome will test whether progressive economic messaging or moderate pragmatic politics resonates more with Democratic primary voters in a city that has grown increasingly diverse and expensive. The winner will face Republican nominee Patrick N. Alloso in the November general election, though Democrats have not lost a mayoral race in D.C. since 1973.