Moderate Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens holds a seven-point lead over far-left rival Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's pivotal Senate primary, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV poll conducted by Glengariff Group.
Stevens, backed by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and the party establishment, stands at 48% support among likely Democratic primary voters, with El-Sayed at 41%. Roughly 10% of respondents remained undecided three weeks before the Aug. 4 primary election. The race is viewed as a key test between progressive and center-left forces within the Democratic Party ahead of November's general election in this battleground state.
What the Right Is Saying
Party establishment figures contend Stevens offers the stronger general election candidacy in a state President Donald Trump carried by just over one percentage point two years ago. Sen. Gary Peters, who has stayed neutral until this week, endorsed Stevens as the successor to his retiring seat. Schumer and Democratic leadership worry that El-Sayed's more progressive positions could jeopardize the seat in November, when either candidate will face former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who is on track to secure the GOP nomination. The seat is considered must-hold for Democrats as they seek to win back the Senate majority currently held by Republicans 53-47.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive leaders have rallied behind El-Sayed, with Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez planning joint campaign events in Michigan this week to boost his candidacy. El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who would become the nation's first Muslim senator if elected, has made Medicare for All a central platform plank while pledging not to accept PAC donations. He has called for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and has been vocal in his criticism of Israel amid its conflict with Hamas, characterizing Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide against Palestinians. Supporters argue that El-Sayed represents the party's future and matches Democratic voter priorities on healthcare and social justice issues.
What the Numbers Show
The Glengariff Group poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters reveals significant demographic splits in candidate support. Stevens holds a commanding 22-point lead among non-college educated voters and an overwhelming 46-point advantage among Black voters. El-Sayed leads by seven points among college-educated respondents and by 12 points among White voters. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points. Outside spending has been substantial, with United Democracy Project, a political action committee aligned with AIPAC, reporting nearly $15 million in expenditures supporting Stevens and opposing El-Sayed.
The Bottom Line
The poll suggests the progressive wing faces an uphill battle even in solidly blue states when working-class and minority voters factor into electoral math. With three weeks remaining, however, 10% of voters remain undecided, leaving room for movement ahead of the primary. Either candidate will face Rogers in November in a race that could determine Senate control. The outcome will provide a concrete measure of progressive candidates' electability in competitive general election environments heading into the 2026 midterms.