Democratic voters in California's 14th Congressional District are casting ballots Tuesday to elect a replacement for former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned four months ago amid sexual assault allegations that derailed his campaign for California governor. Two Democrats—State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez—are competing in the special election to serve out the remainder of Swalwell's term through January 2027.
The race guarantees the East Bay seat will remain under Democratic control, though it further narrows an already fragile Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Polls closed at 8 p.m. PT (11 p.m. ET), and vote counting is underway in Alameda County, which contains the entire district including Hayward, Livermore, Pleasanton, Union City and parts of San Leandro, Fremont and Dublin.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican observers and conservative commentators have framed the race as emblematic of broader concerns about foreign policy lobbying's influence in American elections. Some Republican strategists argue that significant outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups represents an attempt to shape Democratic Party politics from the outside, though they acknowledge the seat will remain Democratic regardless of Tuesday's outcome.
The National Republican Congressional Committee has not actively contested the race but has monitored it as part of broader efforts to understand how outside progressive and centrist Democratic factions compete for party nominations. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, making every seat relevant to their organizational strategy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Conservative commentators have noted that both candidates are moderate-to-progressive Democrats on most domestic issues, suggesting limited policy differentiation between them. Some Republican observers have suggested that internal Democratic party divisions over AIPAC's role could create opportunities for Republican messaging in competitive districts nationally.
What the Left Is Saying
Progressive groups and Democratic strategists are closely watching the race as a test of whether AIPAC-affiliated outside spending can overcome a significant polling deficit. United Democracy Project, a super PAC backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent $1.2 million in August supporting Hernandez and opposing Wahab, according to Federal Election Commission records. Another group called Bold America, which has received funding from United Democracy Project, spent approximately $1.7 million on the race since the special primary.
State Sen. Wahab has positioned herself as a more progressive candidate, having placed first in both the June 16 special primary and the June 2 primary for the full-term seat, leading Hernandez by more than 20 percentage points in each contest. Her campaign has emphasized issues including housing affordability, climate action and healthcare access—priorities that align with the district's Democratic electorate.
Democratic analysts note that despite being significantly outspent, Wahab's consistent leads in polling suggest that outside money alone may not be determinative in Democratic primaries when a candidate has strong grassroots support. The race is also notable as an early test of whether AIPAC can successfully intervene in Democratic contests where the favored candidate trails in public polling.
What the Numbers Show
About 423,000 registered voters are eligible to participate in Tuesday's election, including approximately 210,000 Democrats, about 73,000 Republicans and roughly 116,000 voters with no party preference. Under current district boundaries, Democrats comprise 50.4% of registered voters versus 17.6% for Republicans.
In the June 16 special primary, nearly 124,000 voters cast ballots. About 98% of those votes came from absentee ballots delivered in person or by mail. As of Wednesday, approximately 52,000 ballots had already been cast early in Tuesday's election—about 32,500 from Democrats, about 7,800 from Republicans and the rest from unaffiliated or third-party voters.
Outside groups have spent approximately $4.1 million on the race since mid-July, with about $3.7 million benefiting Hernandez compared with just under $400,000 supporting Wahab. Despite this spending disparity, Wahab led Hernandez by more than 20 percentage points in both prior primaries. In the June primary for the full-term seat, Wahab raised and spent less than Hernandez yet maintained a commanding lead.
In 2024, Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the current 14th District with 65.8% of the vote against Donald Trump. The district boundaries will be slightly redrawn under Proposition 50, a congressional map approved by voters in a 2025 statewide ballot measure that created a map marginally more favorable to Democrats.
The Bottom Line
The special election outcome will determine who represents California's 14th Congressional District for the remainder of 2026 before the winner faces re-election in November for a full term beginning in January 2027. Because both candidates are Democrats, the seat's partisan control is not at stake—what remains uncertain is whether AIPAC-affiliated outside spending can overcome strong polling leads favoring Wahab.
Vote counting proceeds Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in Alameda County. In the June primary, results were first reported at 11:17 p.m. ET, with final counts reaching 99.9% complete by 7:26 p.m. ET on June 18. The Associated Press will declare a winner only when it determines no scenario exists that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap.
The race serves as an early indicator of whether substantial outside spending by pro-Israel groups can shift Democratic primary outcomes where such candidates significantly trail in polling—a dynamic with implications for competitive districts nationwide. There are 77 days until the November 2026 midterm elections.