Median Strategies, a purported polling firm, revealed earlier this past week that two polls released in recent weeks — covering the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary and the Los Angeles mayoral race — were not real. The firm's admission has added to the challenges facing an industry already working to rebuild public trust in its work.
The revelation came from Median Strategies itself, rather than through external investigation or verification. Industry observers have noted that the incident arrives at a difficult moment for pollsters who have faced scrutiny following unexpected election results in recent cycles and ongoing questions about methodology and response rates.
What the Left Is Saying
Democratic operatives and progressive polling experts have expressed concern that incidents like this undermine legitimate survey research conducted by established firms. A Democratic strategist with experience in statewide races said fake polls create noise that makes it harder for campaigns to gauge actual voter sentiment, particularly in competitive primaries where resource allocation depends on accurate data.
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee called the incident 'unfortunate' and emphasized that its own polling work follows strict verification protocols. 'When something like this happens, it erodes confidence not just in bad actors but in the entire ecosystem,' a spokesperson said, adding that reporters and campaigns should verify polling sources before treating results as credible.
Progressives have also noted concern about how fabricated polls could be weaponized in disinformation campaigns or used to manipulate media narratives ahead of elections. Several Democratic data experts called for stronger industry standards around firm registration and methodology disclosure.
What the Right Is Saying
Republican strategists and conservative commentators have pointed to the incident as evidence of broader problems with polling credibility. A Republican National Committee data analyst said the episode highlights how easy it is for bad actors to insert false information into political discourse, though he stopped short of suggesting systemic problems among established firms.
Conservative media figures have used the revelation to question whether other polls released by lesser-known firms should be viewed skeptically. One prominent conservative commentator wrote that the incident 'underscores why voters and campaigns alike should demand transparency from any outfit claiming to measure public opinion.'
Some Republican operatives expressed concern that the fake polls could create confusion in competitive Senate and House races, where internal polling guides major resource decisions. A former GOP campaign manager noted that his team already verifies multiple sources before making strategic choices based on survey data.
What the Numbers Show
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), the industry's main professional organization, has long maintained ethical codes requiring transparency in methodology, sampling procedures, and response rates. The organization's guidelines require member firms to disclose how polls are conducted, including mode of administration, sample size, and margin of error calculation.
Recent polling industry data shows declining response rates across survey methods, with landline telephone surveys experiencing particularly sharp drops. A 2023 Pew Research Center analysis found average response rates for telephone polls fell below 5 percent, compared with rates above 30 percent in the 1990s — raising questions about representativeness regardless of whether firms operate legitimately.
Trust data from Gallup indicates that confidence in polling organizations has fluctuated in recent years, particularly following high-profile misses in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The industry has responded by adopting more rigorous transparency standards and cross-referencing results against actual election outcomes to identify systematic biases.
The Bottom Line
The Median Strategies admission represents a test for how news organizations and campaigns vet polling sources before treating results as legitimate data points. Industry watchdogs say the incident underscores the importance of verifying firm credentials, checking for methodological disclosure, and cross-checking results against established benchmarks.
What happens next will likely involve increased scrutiny of unknown or unregistered polling firms by media outlets deciding whether to report on survey results. Campaigns in Wisconsin and Los Angeles — where the fake polls were released — will need to rely more heavily on internal data and known vendors as they assess their electoral standing in the months ahead.