A new poll from the University of California Berkeley Institute of Government Studies and the Los Angeles Times indicates that Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) member and Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has opened an 11-point lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the general election for mayor. The survey, released Wednesday, shows Raman with 39% support among likely voters compared to Bass's 28%, with a third of the electorate remaining undecided. The findings come less than two weeks before mail-in ballots are scheduled to be sent out for the Nov. 3 election.
The poll highlights a significant portion of undecided voters who previously supported reality television personality and independent candidate Spencer Pratt, who was eliminated in the June primary after receiving 26% of the vote. Pratt, who finished third behind Bass and Raman, has pointed to the new data as validation of his pre-election warning that his elimination would benefit Raman. According to the survey, 63% of Pratt's former supporters remain undecided, while 22% favor Bass and 16% support Raman.
What the Left Is Saying
Mayor Karen Bass dismissed the poll's significance, arguing that it represents an outlier that failed to accurately predict the June primary results. In a social media statement, Bass noted that with 40 days remaining in the campaign, the race remains close and competitive. She stated, "One outlier poll which got the June primary wrong, means very little with 40 days to go... This is going to be a close race, and we're in it to win. Let's get to work!" Bass's campaign has emphasized her support from members of Congress, state legislators, and Los Angeles County officials.
Councilmember Nithya Raman, who has secured endorsements from the DSA's Los Angeles chapter and several local unions, highlighted the poll's findings as evidence of growing momentum. Raman stated on X that the 11-point lead reflects "the momentum we're seeing on the ground," arguing that "Angelenos are ready for change and want to see a City That Works." Raman, who was first elected to the City Council in 2020, has positioned herself as a progressive alternative to the incumbent administration.
What the Right Is Saying
Spencer Pratt, whose independent campaign focused on anti-establishment themes, used the poll results to criticize Mayor Bass and the Democratic establishment. Pratt posted on social media that his previous warning—that voting for Bass would inadvertently help Raman—had been vindicated. "I told everyone that if you don’t vote for me, Raman will beat Bass," Pratt wrote. He added, "Good luck LA," suggesting that the current trajectory favors the socialist candidate over the mayor.
Pratt further characterized the political dynamics within the Democratic Party, stating, "Raman is Karen's karma." He argued that Bass's previous support for Raman's 2024 re-election bid made the current competition a result of internal party conflicts. "The moment Nithya saw an opening, she knifed Karen," Pratt claimed. He advised Democrats to "NEVER trust the DSA," asserting that "Socialists have no morals. They'll gut you, too." Pratt's commentary included references to past videos of Bass supporting Raman for City Council.
What the Numbers Show
The UC Berkeley/LA Times survey, conducted online between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20, polled 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters and carries a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points. The data reveals a stark generational divide: Raman holds a strong advantage among voters aged 18 to 39, while Bass leads by 20 points among voters aged 65 and older. Additionally, the poll indicates high unfavorable ratings for both candidates, with Bass at 63% unfavorable and 28% favorable, and Raman at 39% unfavorable and 40% favorable. The 33% undecided rate is described by poll director Mark DiCamillio as "extraordinarily unusual" for this stage of a mayoral race.
The Bottom Line
The wide gap between the two candidates and the high number of undecided voters suggest that the remaining campaign period will be critical for mobilizing the 63% of Pratt's former supporters who have yet to choose a side. With mail-in ballots approaching, both campaigns are likely to intensify efforts to define the race in the eyes of these swing voters. The outcome may hinge on whether Bass can consolidate the older, more moderate Democratic base or if Raman can maintain her strength with younger, progressive voters. The race remains fluid, with both candidates actively contesting the narrative provided by the latest polling data.