Data & Analysis — Archive
Polling, voter data, demographic trends, and statistical analysis
Too Close to Call: Maine, Michigan and Nebraska Senate Races Still Undecided
Michigan's Senate race is nearly tied, Sen. Pete Ricketts has retaken the lead in Nebraska and Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, in NBC News' count.
NPR Political Editor Addresses Polling Reliability and Midterm Dynamics in Listener Q&A
Senior editor Domenico Montanaro explains that while national polls have slightly underestimated Republican turnout, state-level polling faces challenges from local journalism decline.
Oklahoma Regulators Cited Oil Company for 1,000 Pollution Incidents Without Fining It
ProPublica and The Frontier investigation reveals Citation Oil & Gas, linked to toxic wastewater purges, has never faced completed enforcement cases despite repeated violations.
Democrats Condemn Pollster After Wedgewood Admits Fabricating Survey Data
The polling firm claimed its fake numbers were an experiment on industry oversight, but critics argue the stunt disrupted primary races and donor funding.
GOP Pollster Ruffini Warns Blue Wave May Fall Short Despite Favorable National Environment
Echelon Insights founder argues polls may overstate Democratic gains in deep-red states due to non-response bias and historical convergence patterns.
Civil Rights Groups Plan Thousands of Polling Place Observers for Midterms
Left-leaning organizations cite concerns over ICE presence, while the DOJ announces its largest-ever observer deployment.
Polls Show Democratic Edge in Midterms; Paramount-Warner Bros. Merger Set to Close
Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of five to 15 House seats for Democrats, while the $111 billion media merger clears final regulatory hurdles.
Poll Shows Raman Leading Bass in LA Mayoral Race; Pratt Claims Prediction Vindicated
New UC Berkeley/LA Times survey finds 11-point gap with 33% of voters undecided, many of whom backed eliminated candidate Spencer Pratt.
Poll Shows Decline in Public Trust in Postal Service for Mail-In Ballots
A new survey indicates growing voter concern over the timeliness of USPS delivery for absentee ballots ahead of the 2026 elections.
Commentator Outlines Strategies for GOP to Improve Polling Amid Internal Debate
Analysis suggests the party faces a choice between ideological purity and broadening its coalition to reverse recent polling declines.